The GT300/Fermi Thread

[zalbard]

I'll raise your bet and say it happens in the next 4 years.

No.
For example, Crysis.
So, let's say it represents the current level of our gfx tech advancement. Let's try and get it to the realistic level.
All the modern accelerators even in multi-GPU setups struggle with Crysis with proper realistic resolution (4k x 3k).
So add a year for the tech to catch up at least (++ computing power requirements).
Texture quality is also lacking. Need 2x-4x higher texture quality. 2-3 more years (++ computing power requirements).
Geometry... is WAY behind. If you want photo realistic image quality in a 3D game you need 10-20x more polygons at least. That's 5-6 more years till it's actually possible to render that (++ computing power requirements).
Current lighting is crap. We need raytracing. Realistic raytracing with huge resolutions won't be possible really soon, 5 years at minimum (++ computing power requirements).
Summ up all the hardware performance requirements... this is quite a huge jump needed in order to keep a decent frame rate of such a realistic game. This can not be achieved in 2-3-5 years, for sure.
Once the hardware is out, we can create such a game!
And now imagine creating such a game. The content. Each model would take a TON of time to create. Such a game would take 5 years to develop for a HUGE studio.
So don't expect anything within the next 10 years for sure.