The GT300/Fermi Thread - Part 2!

[zerazax]

RV770 really turned it around for ATI, especially after you consider the debacle that was R600 vs G80

[tajoh111]

I think at the very worst, we are looking at a 2900xt like launch. And even then it will be likely better than that launch because even Charlie thinks this card will be faster than the 5870(while the 2900xt wasn't faster than the gtx8800, used more power and it was six months late). Even if the scores are indeed 5 percent better, with better drivers, I think we can squeeze out another 10 percent or more since this is a totally new generation. Heck 10% is really conservative since this is totally new technology. If Nv gets to the source of what is causing the poor clocks and implements this into the refresh(still at 40nm), and gets up to its target clocks, we should be getting a card by the time the gtx 485 comes out that is indeed 50% faster than a 5870 even by Charlie's initial estimates.

However if the 1200mhz clocks are true, it might look like the gtx 480 is a 2900xt just dying for a refresh.

[firas]

don’t know if it was mentioned before but here it is just in case
Hitler reacts to Nvidia Fermi Benchmarks

[Utnorris]

Wow! Just Wow! Another month before the official launch and then probably a month or two for the cards to be on the shelf at MSRP price, so then a month or two more and the price then becomes competetive and then we have the HD6000 launch. Not looking good for Nvidia. Not looking good.

[Sam_oslo]

Wow! Just Wow! Another month before the official launch and then probably a month or two for the cards to be on the shelf at MSRP price, so then a month or two more and the price then becomes competetive and then we have the HD6000 launch. Not looking good for Nvidia. Not looking good.

As far as I remember, we have always had GPU on the shelfs on launch-day in the resent past. Where did you hear it would probably be a month or two for the cards to be on the shelf at MSRP price?

[FischOderAal]

Demand and supply, it's as easy as that Sam_oslo Our (maybe not) allmighty Jensen already said that it will take some time until Fermi is available in volume (and if the reports are true, it will sport A3 as well).

While at first cards might be near MSRP, the price is likely to increase as soon as the shops realise that. Remember the launch of the 8800 GT? A few were lucky and got the card early and comparably cheap, the people who waited had to pay more.

The exact same happened just a few weeks ago with the HD 5850 and HD 5870. NVIDIA/AMD set the MSRP but in the end it's nothing more than an advice.

[ShadowFox19]

Hot off the Twitter:

[96redformula]

Hot off the Twitter:

They are just trying to save their butts IMO.......Paper launch for sure or super scarce supply coming at the end of march so they can say they "launched it."

[Nedjo]

They are just trying to save their butts IMO.......Paper launch for sure or super scarce supply coming at the end of march so they can say they "launched it."

well on official site they're not mentioning word launch:

http://www.nvidia.com/object/paxeast.html

Come see NVIDIA unveil the next generation of PC gaming. Want to see what’s hot and what’s next? If you’re even vaguely a fan of PC games and miss this special event, you’ll likely be spending the next few months kicking yourself. Line up early as seating is limited. ‘Nuff said.

this thing will be so scarce that you'll need to a) seen it at PAX b) preorder it... 'cos you'll be only able to "kick yourself in the next few months"

[saaya]

One thing I can I give credit to nvidia, their marketing department is smarter than their actual production department. They cut the wrong corners and make bad decisions then try to optimize the problems away.

Then the marketing department steps in and brings in the millions.

i dont think its their marketing department, its their sales department...

I suppose it's safe to assume that Fermi is coming. Why is the warranty getting shorter, though?

i guess cause they know they wont have GF100 parts for a long time, they will probably only have their initial 10K wafers of GF100 and the real availability they mentioned for Q2 will probably be with GF104...

http://www.guru3d.com/article/nvidia-geforce-470-480/

hmmm is it only me who finds it a bit ironic to bash charlie as unreliable and then mention almost the same points he did? the only difference is that he doesnt believe it will hurt nvidia that much.

It starts by aiming directly at Charlie and then validating 3/4 of the stuff he says. I guess Hilbert hopes that NVIDIA's PR guys only read the first few paragraphs.

oh nvm, so it was not just me

This seems like a way to make AMD lose potentially tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of dollars.

If they make enough hoopla about this and the pricing, AMD going to have to reduce the price of their card from 399 down to 299 or less. And their 5850 down atleast 100 dollars.This is of course assuming the gtx 470 performs like the 5870 or better.

X million in sales * pricedrop = tens of millions to hundreds of millions in lost revenue. AMD won't lose money off each card because they are cheap to make. However, I can see the graphic division as a whole not being profitable again.

That alot of damage from a few thousand cards. In the long run this could hurt NV. Its almost a kamikaze move because I don't know how they could sell a 5xx mm2 card so cheap, even in the future.

pff right, like ati would be that stupid

Actually it is about time. ATi has been milking the marked for too long, because nVidia just jumped over those cards that should be competing with 5x-series.

hahahaha whaaaaaat?
nvidia has been milking the market with G80 derivatives for how many years? and now after ati has the performance crown for what, 4 months, and sells some highend cards for more than 500$, they have been milking the market for too long?

The best deal for us (the frequent consumers of GPU), would be:

GTX 470 for $299 which matches/beats 5850
GTX 480 for $399 which matches/beats 5870
Dual GF100 for $499 which matches/beats 5970

But we all know that a superior Fermi (without a real competitor) won't come cheap (just as the ATi 5x-series didn't come cheap either).
These prices won't happen unless ATi has new/refresh GPU to compete with Fermi at launch. That's when it gets really interesting for nerds, because good and cheap GPUs would flying around everywhere.

there definately wont be cheap and good nvidia gpus "flying around everywhere" for quite a while... wake up man!

What Charlie wrote sounds like a typical, non-objective rant. The article on Guru3D confirms some of the arguments, but also says Fermi will be "very fast"

he didnt say that, did he?
he said it wont be notably faster than 5850/5870, and then ads that in his opinion nvidia doesnt have to beat them anyways...
whenever somebody talks about why he doesnt have to do something, hes only trying to disctract from the fact that he CANT do it

At this point, neither. Charlie's articles are clearly meant to inflame a situation and garner him with more readers. Guru3D's is purely reactionary and knee-jerk in nature.

All I'm saying is that I am sick and bloody tired of seeing this back and forth BS. It demeans otherwise legitimate sites when they wade into a discussion about rumors by posting a "me too!" article without citing proper, quotable sources.

i dont think charlie cares all that much about hits man... hes writing the way he thinks and feels about nvidia, easy as that... hes not hiding his anger towards them, nor is he making it up to get more hits with drama...

GTX 470/480 launch 26 march 2010.
http://www.nvidia.com/object/paxeast.html

it doesnt say launch anywhere...

NVIDIA Booth
Exhibit Hall D, Booth #1003- Test drive our highly-anticipated, next-generation GPU…you may even
be able to buy one before anyone else

so where does it say launch?
all this says is that there will be at least one fermi based system you will be able to play games on... plus a speculation that maaaaybe there will be pre-orders at the event...
thats not a launch... if they would launch it then they would mention it big time.

dont miss the launch of our next gen gaming card!!!! it will revolutionize the gaming experience, a once in a lifetime event!

Based on precendent set by Crysis Warhead, I'm quite sure every game this year will play well on a 8800GT.

That is until *somebody* produces another "8800GT" type product (5770 is close.. but).

HD58xx (and especially Fermi) owners are not going to makeup significant share of the market for a long time.

if the 5830 is priced right, cypress might actually turn into a 8800-ish card

but tbh... its impossible for any card to follow in 8800s footsteps now cause there simply arent any demanding games out right now that would require an upgrade...

http://www.benchzone.com/preorders.htm

NV30 part deux March 27

no, it wont be that bad, nv30 was SLOWER than its predecessor in quite some games! fermi cant possibly be slower than a 285 seing as they use very similar building blocks, fermi has more mem bw and even the 470 has double the sp's as a 285...

I think at the very worst, we are looking at a 2900xt like launch.

yeah, thats more like it... and on ln2 fermi will probably spread its wings if its that heat limited as it seems to be, and itll have the benching perf crown, even if it cant be bought anywhere or sucks on air cooling...

[LordEC911]

i guess cause they know they wont have GF100 parts for a long time, they will probably only have their initial 10K wafers of GF100 and the real availability they mentioned for Q2 will probably be with GF104...

9k wafers total of the A silicon.
Not all those wafers will be ready for launch, they have to space out the availability until B1/B2 is ready, late Q2/early Q3 if the B silicon rumor is true.

[Det0x]

don’t know if it was mentioned before but here it is just in case
Hitler reacts to Nvidia Fermi Benchmarks

I like these fermi threads, so much fun

[[XC] gomeler]

super saaya super quote. That is all.

[tajoh111]

I think you are given to much credit to Charlie for his intentions. If he was a journalist he would write like one.

Charlie wants to get as many hits as possible. This is a man who will dress in a bunny suit at a convention. Who will hand out pamplets which try to humiliate the company that is having a function there. Charlie tries to write something that will provoke as much of a reaction as possible. Charlie isn't conservative in his writing because it helps get hits. It makes him look wrong alot of the time, but in this day and age, you don't get hits with vague uninteresting information. You do it by going out a limb and saying hard numbers(even those it might make you look like a fool in the end).

Charlie is trying his best to get people to notice him and is an attention whore. It probably why he started his own website. He will do something that demeans him just so he can get more people to read his stuff or listen to him.

[BrowncoatGR]

super saaya super quote. That is all.

Now i know why the multi-quote button changes to Saaya

Anyway i hope Fermi perfoms better than NVs PR team does lately. We need competition to keep prices in check.

[Neuromancer]

I think you are given to much credit to Charlie for his intentions. If he was a journalist he would write like one.

Charlie wants to get as many hits as possible. This is a man who will dress in a bunny suit at a convention. Who will hand out pamplets which try to humiliate the company that is having a function there. Charlie tries to write something that will provoke as much of a reaction as possible. Charlie isn't conservative in his writing because it helps get hits. It makes him look wrong alot of the time, but in this day and age, you don't get hits with vague uninteresting information. You do it by going out a limb and saying hard numbers(even those it might make you look like a fool in the end).

Charlie is trying his best to get people to notice him and is an attention whore. It probably why he started his own website. He will do something that demeans him just so he can get more people to read his stuff or listen to him.

The problem is.. he has not been that far off. And unfortunately... we have been lied to by "reviewers" and BIG QUOTES "Internet journalists" for so long now (hey remember when nVidia PAID people to go spam forums??? was not that long ago )ANYTHING you read should be taken with a grain of salt because 99.99% of them NEVER went to journalism school and as such never took an ethics class. On top of that.. you gotta figure that 9 out of 10 journalists are slanted anyway.

So what did Charlie say wrong? 2% ? TSMC admitted to "single digit success percentages" on their wafers but that the yields were only as low as 20%. (If you cant find the story on google you either are not looking or it was removed) March release date? Yup.. looking like it will be a paper launch at that time... Poor Clock management and overheating problems? Why is it that when he said it 5 months ago it was terrible slanted news and now that it is looking to be fact.. he is still be lambasted? I dont respect the guy... his writing is terrible, but he is right. (for a blogger) At least he has been pretty spot on with Fermi. The fact that they are releasing NOT their flagship model in march... (which is utterly unlike nVidia) should be s ign that the guy was not wrong.

He maybe he is (and I am) and there will be more than 1000 release units of the 480 in March... I expect it to hit stores in May though as he predicts, because lets face it... he has been right thus far...

So Charlie was right! but NOT, in the same breath. And the fools that think Charlie is an idiot but take nVidia PR as gospel (a company that has been proven to lie to you over and over) well I think that some "doth protest to much."

Trashing Charlie is kind of like someone joining a discussion about network news and mentioning the daily show. (Even with the caveat.. "I dont think it s a news show but I am just saying..."). Thanks a lot man.. .way to bring down the intelligence level of a discussion. Talk about a comedy show and try and compare it to news... especially since it IS completely slanted... well whatever... stupid point about stupid people.

So with that thought process... Don't believe ANYTHING you read.. but also don't try and discredit Charlie either... he is more believable than the great green PR machine.

[tajoh111]

The problem is.. he has not been that far off. And unfortunately... we have been lied to by "reviewers" and BIG QUOTES "Internet journalists" for so long now (hey remember when nVidia PAID people to go spam forums??? was not that long ago )ANYTHING you read should be taken with a grain of salt because 99.99% of them NEVER went to journalism school and as such never took an ethics class. On top of that.. you gotta figure that 9 out of 10 journalists are slanted anyway.

So what did Charlie say wrong? 2% ? TSMC admitted to "single digit success percentages" on their wafers but that the yields were only as low as 20%. (If you cant find the story on google you either are not looking or it was removed)

So Charlie was right! but not in the same breath. And the fools that think Charlie is an idiot but take nVidia PR as gospel (a company that has been proven to lie to you over and over) well its stupid to point it out.

Its like starting a converstation about how bad the news is and then say... " Well gee wilikers, even the daily show is more adherent to the truth than Foxnews/CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC/XXX or Vivid entertainment" UM WOW... you mentioned the daily show in a news thread.. thanks alot moron. You just proved that society really is stupid. The fact that when someone brings up news you think of a comedy show just seals the deal...(I bring this point up because I see it so often and it is a perfect example of how poorly educated our world society is today, this is not a USA problem it is a globalization problem...)

So with that thought process... Don't believe ANYTHING you read.. but also don't try and discredit Charlie either... he is more believable than the great green PR machine.

No one, especially this board has been taking NV pr as the truth. Similarly no one has paying attention to the pr of other company. I don't think NV should be singled out for lying, all companies do it nowadays. I don't remember Nvidia even really lying about fermi. Its just rumors that didn't turn out to be true more than anything. Sure rebranding g92 can sort of been seen as lying, but they are not forcing a gun to anyone head to buy it and they are not raising the price. The only clear lie I think was the fake gf100, but that wasn't going to do anything for potential buyers.

Although, Charlie has been right a few times(all related to the same thing), doesn't make him the most accurate guy. Your making it sounds like charlie hasn't been wrong before. Charlie has been wrong on a few things, the most recent being NV cancels big bang MSI motherboard or oakridge project being canceled. Or Nvidia being in trouble for the last two quarters for having nothing to counter 5xxx.

I don't remember about hearing about people spaming on behalf of NV. I don't think you are giving review website enough credit if you think 90 percent are being bribed. On the opposite end, people say anandtech was one of the people who brought about the gts250 coverup, but these same people will then say Intel is known for loving intel and from what I have seen, only Anand has a bawlin lifestyle supported primarily through his website. Similarly, it was not that long ago when HardOCP was being accused by members on this board for favoring Nvidia. I think there is alot of conspiracy theories that are not true.

I thinks it dont buy things based on rumors and to also buy something when you actually need it. Don't be a fanboy for any company because all they want is your money.

[damha]

No one, especially this board has been taking NV pr as the truth. Similarly no one has paying attention to the pr of other company. I don't think NV should be singled out for lying, all companies do it nowadays. I don't remember Nvidia even really lying about fermi. Its just rumors that didn't turn out to be true more than anything. Sure rebranding g92 can sort of been seen as lying, but they are not forcing a gun to anyone head to buy it and they are not raising the price.

Although, Charlie has been right a few times(all related to the same thing), doesn't make him the most accurate guy. Your making it sounds like charlie hasn't been wrong before. Charlie has been wrong on a few things, the most recent being NV cancels big bang MSI motherboard or oakridge project being canceled. Or Nvidia being in trouble for the last two quarters for having nothing to counter 5xxx.

I don't remember about hearing about people spaming on behalf of NV. I don't think you are giving review website enough credit if you think 90 percent are being bribed. On the opposite end, people say anandtech was one of the people who brought about the gts250 coverup, but these same people will then say Intel is known for loving intel and from what I have seen, only Anand has a bawlin lifestyle supported primarily through his website. Similarly, it was not that long ago when HardOCP was being accused by members on this board for favoring Nvidia. I think there is alot of conspiracy theories that are not true.

Too much I think and I don't think in this post. You are missing much history.

The one who raises the biggest stink gets the most attention. No PR team is honest, but it is all relative

[Neuromancer]

No one, especially this board has been taking NV pr as the truth. Similarly no one has paying attention to the pr of other company. I don't think NV should be singled out for lying, all companies do it nowadays. I don't remember Nvidia even really lying about fermi. Its just rumors that didn't turn out to be true more than anything. Sure rebranding g92 can sort of been seen as lying, but they are not forcing a gun to anyone head to buy it and they are not raising the price. The only clear lie I think was the fake gf100, but that wasn't going to do anything for potential buyers.

Although, Charlie has been right a few times(all related to the same thing), doesn't make him the most accurate guy. Your making it sounds like charlie hasn't been wrong before. Charlie has been wrong on a few things, the most recent being NV cancels big bang MSI motherboard or oakridge project being canceled. Or Nvidia being in trouble for the last two quarters for having nothing to counter 5xxx.

I don't remember about hearing about people spaming on behalf of NV. I don't think you are giving review website enough credit if you think 90 percent are being bribed. On the opposite end, people say anandtech was one of the people who brought about the gts250 coverup, but these same people will then say Intel is known for loving intel and from what I have seen, only Anand has a bawlin lifestyle supported primarily through his website. Similarly, it was not that long ago when HardOCP was being accused by members on this board for favoring Nvidia. I think there is alot of conspiracy theories that are not true.

Ok I think you are missing my point... because I am not good at elucidating no doubt.

First of all I see people proclaiming the best of Fermi since November. When the product did not even exist.

I also am not claiming that Charlie is a font of truth. I am just a little sick of seeing greenie fanboys trash him every chance they get, why him and not every other stupid blogger in the world? It is starting back up again because fermi is "possibly" being released next month. The thing that bothers me most... is the guy is pretty intelligent and seems to have some good information and is more right than not, which is pretty rare in the forecasting world. Especially knowing hte strangle hold nVidia has on journalists.. so going against them it is REALLY hard to get truthful information from sources. I am sure he has gotten bad info as well. Let's hope he some shred of journalistic integrity, and actually validates from more than one credible source.

Is he always right? No, has been right with Fermi? Seems to be true... I dont work at TSMC but know someone who did, and heard about the 45-40nm "shrink" (this affects ati and nvidia) both are built on 45nm process basically... its out of my ken to discuss ...

Too much I think and I don't think in this post. You are missing much history.

The one who raises the biggest stink gets the most attention. No PR team is honest, but it is all relative

Yup. PR is PR.. does not matter if its a company trying to sell a product, or a blogger trying to make a name for himself. EVERYONE knows who Charlie is now...well every geek anyway. It does not matter that everyone at XS knows that that guy is right or wrong 100% of the time.. 99% of the world is taking it as news... that is bad.. because most people do not know how to separate the wheat from the chaff.. he has a lot of wheat.. covered with a lot of chaff.

[Serpentarius]

GPU politics is just as bad as any real world politics ....

luckily it just 2 GPU manufacturer for now

[Tenknics]

Do you guys forget the name of Charlie's site? Think about it..it would save you all a lot of time.

[Andrew LB]

I highly doubt we will see very low availability of GF100 cards when they do hit the market like we did with with ATi's 5xxx cards during the past 6 months since It's quite clear the setback was caused by poor yields in TSMC's .40nm production. ATi rushed out their cards on this same process which caused them to have very high production costs and near non-existent availability during 2009 with the hopes that they'd grab a sizable chunk of market share away from nVidia. So far, this tactic has not proven itself to be a failure when you look at quarterly sales figures and dividend returns. To my surprise, a large majority of customers who I build high end systems for have yet to show any inclination in going in the direction of transitioning to HD 5xxx graphics solutions even after I inform them that ATi cards are clearly the best performing cards currently on the market. Many of them simply don't want to go with ATi because the lack of Cuda and PhysX processing, a history of shoddy drivers, and because they think ATi's current market lead will be just like previous leads in that it's typically followed by a couple years of being second rate once nVidia gets it's new architecture on the market.

A lot of consumers see ATi's performance lead not as some huge feat of technological innovation, but rather as the result of nVidia holding off release of a clearly better card because manufacturing costs would have been extremely high (as ATi has found out) due to TSMC's very low .40nm yields last year.

If ATi's strategy was as good as the fanboys here claim it to be, why has it clearly failed in terms of profits and market share gains? The goal here for ATi was to release a faster card and claim the performance crown while propagating the idea that nVidia's upcoming card had major flaws and will be another NV30.... all while hoping consumers will turn away from NV. And even though their insanely vocal fan base followed this strategy perfectly... the message has not has achieved any of it's goals as the numbers below clearly show.

I personally believe many consumers are completely turned off on buying ATi products when they go to websites like XS to research a pending graphics card purchase because of flood of negative crap consistently flooding any thread where readers simply want to get accurate, fair, and current information.

[Sn0wm@n]

anyone want to guess what will be the next fermi joke ????

[mindfury]

http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...3&postcount=70

The first tape-out of the GT300 was back in January/Feb of 2009. And nVidia had a far more refined tape-out which was announced in Santa Clara, CA in May, 2009.

I see absolutely no reason why the GT300 cards will not be ready by Q4 2009 considering their first tape out was over 7 months ago.

While in the past couple years, I've been quite skeptical regarding nVidia's recent claims about their forthcoming chips. But this time seems quite different and brings back memories of how quiet nVidia was about the G80.

Typically companies who run their mouths all the time about their upcoming "groundbreaking" GPU/CPU.... it almost always ends in disaster. (FX series of nVidia cards).

I'm even becoming quite concerned for ATI/AMD because they're by far the more vocal of the two GPU manufacturers.

I have a feeling nVidia is going to release a beast of a card later this year.

[NaMcO]

(...) Many of them simply don't want to go with ATi because the lack of Cuda and PhysX processing, a history of shoddy drivers, and because they think ATi's current market lead will be just like previous leads in that it's typically followed by a couple years of being second rate once nVidia gets it's new architecture on the market.

A lot of consumers see ATi's performance lead not as some huge feat of technological innovation, but rather as the result of nVidia holding off release of a clearly better card because manufacturing costs would have been extremely high (as ATi has found out) due to TSMC's very low .40nm yields last year (...)

Wow best post in 6 months and of the whole thread. QFT.