The GT300/Fermi Thread - Part 2!

[saaya]

tsmc's public production rates for the 40nm process

if tsmc is only able to produce 80,000 wafers per quarter, i just can't see nvidia having 60,000 gf100 chips ready and waiting right now. availability will probably be scarce until tsmc ramps production further. i'm not doubting that there will be cards ready on the 26th, but good luck getting one for a reasonable price...

depends on the yields...
thats around 1K wafers per day...
lets say nvidia can use up half of tsmcs capacity, rather optimistic, but lets see where that takes us...

100% yield = 100 fermis per wafer (roughly) = 50k fermis per day
50% yield = 50 fermis per wafer = 25k fermis per day
25% yield = 25 fermis per wafer = 12K fermis per day
10% yield = 10 fermis per wafer = 5k fermis per day

even at 10% yields nvidia could stock 60k fermis in 2 weeks using their tsmc capacity for fermi only, or in 4 weeks using half of their allocated capacity.
so this actually makes sense and sounds very possible...
this only shows that its possible with tsmcs wafer output... if the yields would really be 10% then each chip would cost 500$ and it just wouldnt make sense for nvidia to produce a lot of chips, so while tsmc COULD supply nvidia with 60k chips in one month even at low yields, nvidia probably wouldnt do it.

provided the wafer output is correct... the amount of fermis available at launch depends entirely on nvidia... if they want, they can launch it with 60k available right away. if its less, then its most likely not tsmcs fault, but yields are so bad that it doesnt make sense for nvidia to produce a lot.