obvious facts (everybody already knows):
  • Fermi GPU has ~50% more transistors than Cypress 5870
  • Fermi GPU is bigger than Cypress 5870
  • the yields at best can't be as good as Cypress 5870
  • Fermi GPU costs more than a 5870 (price can be anything)
  • expect disabling of chip units (harvesting) and clock speed binning
  • Fermi has 2x SP and hence double shader performance of GTX2xx (like GTX295).
  • Fermi will be faster than GTX2xx. Thats a fact.
  • Fermi will require new (not yet available) drivers.
  • Fermi DX11 and new features will get heavy marketing.
  • Fermi will be dual-slot card.


Fermi in many ways is similar to other big projects like Boeing 787. Very ambitious. Rarely on time.

But even if things are 10x worse than we imagine, just like R600, it will still launch "as is". And, its not the end of the world. Fermi successor is already designed and being finished off.

Regardless if performance is +10% or -10% from expected, and whatever the availability, with new drivers and time, that will change dramatically over the months.