Why would 502mm2 be so wrong, gtx580 was around 520mm2 and gtx680 is 294mm2. Going by gtx680 size Titan is not a doubling of 680 specs and neither should the size be so 502mm2 seems like a realistic assumption to me.
GTX580 with a 520mm2 die was a 244w TDP rated part stock clocked at 772mhz core, 235w TDP for around a 500mm2 Titan core shoehorns within the general dimensions and TDP.




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