Quote Originally Posted by savantu View Post
Allow me to disagree. Here are my reasons :

1. Intel isn't competing for the low margin products. For example, Atom has higher gross margins than Intel's Celeron,single and double core Pentiums. Why ? Because you get 2000 from a wafer and you sell them for $40 in average. With Celeron/Pentium you get 400 and sell them for $60.
I'm not talking gross margins, just margins. Your example doesn't disagree with what I said. Atom in this example is still a lower margin product.

Same story is happening at MID/tablet/smartphone level. Intel isn't competing for $15 a pop cellphones, but for those which cost over $200 where they can enjoy high margins. They don't want to get in the price slime that ARM loves.
I think that ARM is likely more suitable for the >$200 cellphone/MID market than x86. Of course, time will tell. For one thing, backwards comparability on those formats isn't as important.
For the tablet/netbook level Atom is too weak for a decent experience, IME. I'm curious to see how ontario fits in those formats. They are just a little too small for CULV.

2. AMD isn't filling any high margin gap. I'm sure they'll price their parts at Atom like level or even lower. Where Ontario is competing you have current single and dual core Atom, superseded at the top by ULV I3/5s,than LV I3/I5s which are going to be replaced by SB very soon. I've heard that Intel has a backup solution a single core SB. Probably it will end up in the 10-20w range and things will be really intersting : 2 small Bobcat cores + large GPU vs. large SB core + medium GPU.
AMD won't get high margins for a few reasons. For one, they have to outsource their chip production. They also can't price as high because they don't have the brand recognition. We will have to see what the margins end up like. Probably not great, but for them some revenue is better then none.

I think Ontario will fit in the gap between Atom and I3/I5/SB. It should be significantly more powerful then Atom. That's good for the formats, like netbooks and tablets, where Atom is weak now. It will overlap with I3/I5/SB at the Zecate end of the range. My bet is that I3/I5/SB will be quite a bit faster, but Zecate will have significantly lower real world power usage. GPU will probably be about the same. So it would depend on your needs as to which one is better.

3. ARM targets the netbooks, a market currently worth 30-40m units. That's where Bobcat also tries to reach. Intel is attacked from both sides, true, but hey, if they can't handle the pressure who can ?
ARM could do some damage in the netbook/tablet sectors if they designed a slightly beefier chip. I hope they do. Though for some people in this range software compatibility is still important.

Of course Intel can handle the pressure. AMD beat on them for years and Intel easily recovered. The real question is if x86 is ever going to be competitive for MIDs and smartphones. Because when Intel demonstrated the capability to take a beating and hardly notice they also demonstrated the capability to stubbornly go down a futile path. Personally I feel that ARM (or other low-power specific architectures) will always have a major advantage in this segment and what Intel has to fight with is process.

The growth is in low power market. That's why Intel is going after it. The traditional PC market is yesterday news.
Intel covers the very top of the low power market with netbooks and Atom. There tablets below, MIDs and smartphone where Intel is a non-player. Their attempt to increase revenue by going into new markets is very logical.
The whole market of nettops/netbooks/tablets/mids/smartphones etc is growing. Traditional desktops are in decline. What could be more logical then for AMD to go after a segment of that market that neither ARM or Intel are filling effectively? At least as a first step.

AMD can sit on the sidelines and be confined to the x86 market or try to do what Intel does and go for ARM's throat. It is their choice after all.
You make it sound like those are the only two options. Personally I'd like to see Intel and AMD both release low-power non-x86 architectures to more effectively compete with ARM in these segments. I think this is where things are going to heat up in the next few years.