The official GT300/Fermi Thread

[Cybercat]

It's a different world now! Nvidia is reliant on it's stock holders now.

Bro, the average person doesn't upgrade their card every generation. Many people are still using the X1900XT's or G80's and are waiting to upgrade this Xmas, in lue of Windows 7 or because of a new build/computer.

Secondly, Xmas is a HUGE time for video card sales. More people will by Video card in the next 3 months, than in the following 10 months. ATi will reap huge profits because their products are out.

Thirdly, the 5770, etc.. is due out. They will sell like hotcakes, because of their lower price points (ie: below $199). Nvidia will not have any DX11 part to compete in the sub $200 category till Jan/Feb..


When Investors find this out soon, Nvidia's stocks will plummet.

While ATi has a full line of new DX11 cards from $99 ~ $499 during the Holiday Season. People only buy a card once every other year, or possibly every year... means Nvidia will have to sit out till next Xmas.

Nvidia knows this, so will spin it a different way..

You're making a lot of claims, but not supporting your arguments. I'm saying people won't be doing much upgrading because there isn't the demand from games. You're saying they will be doing a lot of upgrading because...they're still using cards from a few generations back? So what? Why upgrade if those cards can run nearly every game (most of which is console ports)?

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/
While not the end-all, be-all of statistical information, as a rough idea this survey shows most people are using G80 and RV770 based cards. These are more than capable graphics cards. Millions of people aren't going to upgrade just for the sake of upgrading. Some might, but not the numbers that will cause NVIDIA the kind of harm you think it will. Yes, Christmas experiences the highest sales, typically, but a few percentage points more than the rest of the year isn't saying much, nevermind the sliver of that that'll go towards DX11 hardware. $200 is cheap, but it's still $200 most people would rather pocket than waste on an unnecessary upgrade.

I think you said it quite well. "The average person doesn't upgrade their card every generation." Indeed, and that's never been more true than in recent years. Again, I think NVIDIA will survive this generation.