I agree completely. Just as you said, it's probably a lot harder for ATI to keep newer parts fed the wider their SP engine gets. I actually think their utilization goes down significantly as the SPs go up, resulting in poorer efficiency with each subsequent generation. It's why a GTX 295 with 1.8 TFLOPs is able to beat a 5870 with 2.7 TFLOPs. The amount of FLOPs matters even less than it used to, because it's all in how you use them.
A GF100 might have 1.7 TFLOPs when it gets released, which is only about 60% more than a GTX 285 at 1 TFLOP (more if you're rounding, of course). However, 1/3 of the theoretical FLOP rate in G80-architecture-based cards goes almost entirely unused in real-world situations. The FLOP rate on GF100 is what it can achieve in real-world, and on top of that, it's more efficient than G80/GT200's baseline FLOP rate.
AMD definitely has a ways to go with their drivers, as with a VLIW architecture they rely heavily on their compiler. Has anyone done any testing of AF performance specifically?






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