Yeah I also believe that a 5-10% increase in IPC is more realistic for Deneb, although the average will probably be closer to that 5% increase and DDR3 could increase that a little.
About that K8 shrink from 90 to 65 nm., AMD did not want to invest anything into that shrink and they only did the necessary things to get it working on 65 nm. and no optimizations at all. I believe they could have made their 65 nm. part on par of higher performance per clock compared to their 90nm. part but this was probably not worth the hassle. Getting a mature 65 nm. process up and running for Phenom was probably more important, though even there they haven't gone to the same extent as they did with their 90 nm. process and are now primarily focusing on their upcoming 45 nm. process.
@Rammsteiner: Is there any word on the clocks of the L3 cache on Deneb? Is there still a clock deficit between the L3 cache and the cores? I believe they could get a nice boost by clocking them at the same speeds, nothing ground braking probably and a downside might be a decrease (over)clocking potential. But these are all changes to the overall architecture of the chip, the cores them self could use a healthy boost and I don't think that adding some SSE instructions will do so right now.
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