For Deneb to be >= to Yorkfield, it'll need to be 15 - 20% faster than 65nm Phenoms. This seems a bit unrealistic, when was the last die shrink (even with core enhancements + cache increases) that yielded a 15 - 20% increase in performance? Northwood was about 10% faster than Willamette, thats the biggest I've seen from a die shrink. In more recent times, Penryn is some 5 - 6% faster than Conroe. Off the top of my head, I don't remember any AMD die shrinks that have resulted in significantly improved performance, in fact performance went down slightly in the last K8 shrink from 90nm to 65nm.
Now obviously Deneb will increase performance some, the larger L3 alone guarantees that, but all I'm saying is that 15 - 20% is a LOT to ask for. K8 to K10 improved by about that margin per clock, and we're talking an architectural overhaul. You're asking for the same increase from a die shrink + some enhancements, it seems a bit optimistic IMO but time will tell. I personally think Deneb will be 5 - 10% faster per clock, putting it around Kentsfield levels but slightly slower than Yorkfield. Hopefully I am wrong and Deneb lives up to the hype you guys are heaping on it, but I've sort of lost confidence in AMD's ability to deliver, especially on the CPU side of things.
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