As waver said, the HD 4870 is supposed to be ~30% faster than the HD 4850 on average. I think it is likely that sometimes it will be more and sometimes it will be less; there is a 20% clock difference between the 4850 and 4870, and then the 4870 has 80% more bandwidth. In situations that require a lot of bandwidth (like Crysis @ 1920x1200) I think it is likely that the 4870 will pull ahead by more than 30%.
As for the validity of Crysis as a benchmark... IMO it is the only thing that matters right now, so yes I think it is an important benchmark. Crysis is the only thing I can't already run at maximum setting w/ AA+AF at my res of 1680x1050 with an 8800GTS 512MB. The only other thing is Call of Juarez in DX10, but it is still playable and anyway I don't think I will be replaying it. So to me, at this moment, no benchmark but Crysis is important. And I can't see that changing much later this year.... Fallout 3 will be based on the Oblivion engine, so it will likely be a breeze for modern cards. Far Cry 2 can't be more demanding than Crysis, especially since it is on consoles as well. Alan Wake is supposed to be more CPU-bound than GPU-bound, and given that we haven't heard anything for so long, it may be vaporware (sadly, was looking forward to it). Stalker: Clear Sky might be very demanding, but we'll have to wait and see.
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