KTE,
The ULK will have a positive power impact, but dynamic not leakage. Leakage in the backend is not the dominating power loss mechansims, gate leakage has surpassed subthreshold leakage at 65 nm.
On the Idsat, it will be interesting if AMD can implement the (110) technology since that will be a big boost in Pmos, they have not reported Pmos data that I am aware, though I have only 'lazily' looke dor it.
Their NMOS Idsat is not that impressive, they are reporting 1364 at 200 is about 8% above where they reported the initial 65 nm at the same subthreshold and this does not account for gate leakage which is only present during the on state. So, unless PMOS comes in very strong, then 8-10% more clock at the same thermals, or some power savings at the same clock.
It is hard to tell, or even speculate at this point since the initial 65 nm data is sorta stale, in that what AMD reported in 2005 was probably operative at 65 nm launch (which top binned at 2.6 GHz for a dual core at the time), but today that is pretty much different for what is going into Barcelona since they had a year to exercise CTI.
In short, I don't really see AMD's 45 nm really coming very close to Intels unless two things happen... they bring in HK/MG and come out with a very strong PMOS (which could happen if they do 110)
EDIT: I went and looked up the IEDM paper referenced in your link http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freea...t=281&index=75 (oooops, not that one, this one http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freea...t=281&index=78) and yep, their Ion/Ioff curve is very impressive.
Jack
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