AMD Cayman info (or rumor)

[zerazax]

I think your ignoring a lot of evidence. the 300-500 dollar price card range is larger than you think. The amount of 58xx series card out there, which have spent most of their life between 280 and 4xx price range, are pretty much the same amount according to steam hardware survey as the 57xx series. Both carry around a 33% market share of the direct x 11 market. The Antilles price range is definitely niche though and I think that word is overused.

Additionally black friday is not just about buying stuff on sale, its about people buying stuff for themselves and for Christmas, even when it is not necessarily on sale. People will pay stupid markup on christmas unlike any other season. Most companies gives those blockbuster deals just to get people in the store to shop as much of these discounted items are priced at or below cost. Also for november, look at pretty much every major videogame console hardware release, PS3, PS2, xbox, xbox 360, gamecube, wii, all mid to late november release. I would definitely say videocards relate to gaming.

You would be surprised at how many people will gift their special someone with hardware or with a computer, electronics etc. People will buy themselves more stuff during christmas because they feel more liberal to spending. Most things besides maybe houses, have epic sales during the november- december months.

There are still lots of 5970s out there and not at 500 dollars, go to pricegrabber. Companies like tigerdirect and mwave still have 5970s for 700 dollars.

Again, you're overstating graphics cards and the holidays. People most often buy gifts that are common general electronics - TV's, gaming consoles, blu-ray players, etc. and they are reflected in Black Friday ads. In fact, the # of TV's, gaming consoles, and other general electronics pushed out there are in volumes many orders of magnitude greater than any GPU sales.

How many Black Friday ads discount enthusiast cards? For that matter, how many even discount performance class cards?

Most GPU ads on Black Friday are often cheap giveaways of low end cards, esp. since it's a quick way to get rid of bad cards to to unsuspecting buyers.

The vast majority of GPU buyers, especially when we start talking about the $300+ range, are people who know a thing or two about GPUs, and most often buy from etailers such as Newegg.

And again, that's why Black Friday and Christmas sales almost never discount recently released cards - for the same reason recently released cards often rise in price in the first few months - because they know the buyers of these cards tend to be a niche within a niche.

You're much more likely to see the 5800's get put on big discounts for Black Friday this year because they're EOL - my bet is you won't see any 6800's or 580's get put on big discounts of any kind, and for those same reasons, there's no reason AMD needs Cayman to be pushed out for Black Friday - because they know their buyers will buy a new high end card regardless of whether it falls on a holiday or not.

I hate car analogies but this is an apt one: it's the same reason you don't see Porsches or high end BMWs etc. get put on sales, until they're EOL. Because they know their higher end cards are a small market relative to the rest of the automotive industry, but their buyers will buy whenever new models that fit their criteria are out, and thus there is almost never a need to discount a car - and often, they get marked up because of demand.