The GT300/Fermi Thread - Part 2!

[zalbard]

Assuming 5870 < GTX480 < 5970 performance wise, right?
Plus it's new, expensive to make, and features sweet GPGPU all cool kids totally must have.
So I suppose it'll be priced around $600 at launch, $150 more expensive than 5870 (and 50% higher than the proposed 300 Euro = $400).

[Roger_D25]

From previous releases over the years I think your estimate is very accurate (at least given the current compatition from AMD/ATI). In my opinion I wouldn't be surprised if the GTX480 launches at a slighty higher retail price, somewhere closer to $649+-?

[***Deimos***]

Recent HD5450 got me thinking about the enormous and still growing gap between low and high end.

Low end shader performance improvement from 2002->201: 4 (9500) -> 16 (HD5450)... 4x

R9600	4 ROP/TMU	4 PixelShader
X300	4 ROP/TMU	4 PixelShader
X1300	4 ROP/TMU	4 PixelShader
HD23/24	4 ROP/TMU	8 5wide SP
HD34xx	4 ROP/TMU	8 5wide SP
HD43/45	4 ROP 8 TMU	16 5wide SP
HD54xx	4 ROP 8 TMU	16 5wide SP

High-end shader performance improvement from 2002->2010: 8 (9700) -> 640 (HD5970)... 80x!!

Anybody who thinks Fermi will cost less than what G200's cost (ie those 299 euro folks) is totally dellusional. Put down the kool-aid/mushrooms/acid. Unless as I said long ago, nVidia starts drinking Sony's kool-aid and starts "giving away" Fermi at a loss to try to reach bankruptcy ASAP.

PS: 199 euro FERMI at launch - WTF how ridiculous is that!! Its 21 fricken months after G200 launched, and a crippled GTX275 is US$250-$300.. if you can find it all, since pretty much discontinued (EOL).

PS2: Remember HD5870 is $379 MSRP ($400 in stores), but Fermi is at least 50% bigger, and %50 more memory. Think about it.

[Sam_oslo]

Assuming 5870 < GTX480 < 5970 performance wise, right?
Plus it's new, expensive to make, and features sweet GPGPU all cool kids totally must have.
So I suppose it'll be priced around $600 at launch, $150 more expensive than 5870 (and 50% higher than the proposed 300 Euro = $400).

Assuming 5870 < GTX480 < 5970 performance.
In GPU-world 20% more performance means at least 60% more price for the top-cards. (ATi is not adding 20% to the 5850 price for calculating the price of 5870 either). So based on that assumption, if GTX 480 is ~20% better than 5870 then you are right on spot, but if it can match the 5970-performance and ATi just watch it (with those big plans for 86x-series which comes later , and even bigger and later plans for 28nm ), then I'm afraid that you have to recalculate those numbers, big time.

[ElSel10]

40nm 512SP Fermi = ?? record die size ?? - 3BT is record!!??

It's already been confirmed that the die size is somewhere between the 65nm GT200 and the 55nm GT200b.

[zalbard]

but if it can match the 5970-performance

It didn't even in NVIDIA's biased demos...
And 600$ is minimum (ATI's prices might drop), if it really rocks it can be priced as high as 700-800$...

[Sam_oslo]

It didn't even in NVIDIA's biased demos...
And 600$ is minimum (ATI's prices might drop), if it really rocks it can be priced as high as 700-800$...

I don't think a a price-drop will help at all, how cares about a second grade outdated GPU anyways? ATi needs to have a card to compete on performance (it can be either 5970, or a refresh/new GPU) that can match/beat Fermi, otherwise Fermi won't be cheap.

[zalbard]

Fermi won't be cheap no matter what happens.
Nvidia isn't doing a giveaway after working so hard and for so long, not to mention the size of the thing... At least they can sell a lot of cool key chains with their supposedly poor yields!

[Sam_oslo]

I don't agree. ATi is going to play a big role on the price of Fermi, just as nVidia did in last round. ATi had no competing GPU and you see what happend to 5-series prices?

I hope ATi manges to put up a fight now (not with 68-series in 6 months or 28nm in next year) because if these guys are avoiding to compete and beat each other, then we all are going to suffer.

[zalbard]

Well, IMO cheap (for an ultimate high end gfx card) is under $499. Do you believe in that? At least within the first month after the launch. I don't.

[NapalmV5]

NV finally found final CLOCKS of GTX 470/480. Cards are ready to launch, will be in second half of March in reviews. There is one word: Gemini, when GF100 will be launched, remember for that word! Bye fans!

[***Deimos***]

Fermi won't be cheap no matter what happens.
Nvidia isn't doing a giveaway after working so hard and for so long, not to mention the size of the thing... At least they can sell a lot of cool key chains with their supposedly poor yields!

Both 256bit boards. Both 1GB GDDR5. Both <200W.
RV870 die size about 25% more than RV770.

HD5870/50 launch price: $379, $259 - AMD's 2nd test on defect prone 40nm
HD4870/50 launch price: $299, $199 - very mature 55nm, exellent yields

If it costs AMD more to make 40nm chips, why would you think nVidia would be an exception? All those TSMC issues are much worse for a big chip.

I would be shocked if by Sept'10, nVidia had good availability and didn't rely extensively on cutdown models.

nVidia future options:
1. different fab? unlikely.. at least 6-9 months for a product.
2. different node.. ie 32nm.. more redesign/floorplanning required.. at least 6-9 months.
3. do like "9600GT": make smaller 320 SP (10 clusters) or even 384 SP (12 clusters) chip using 256bit bus.
75% of SP, 75% bus.. other trimmings.. bam.. ~330mm2 chip like Cypress.

[Sam_oslo]

Well, IMO cheap (for an ultimate high end gfx card) is under $499. Do you believe in that? At least within the first month after the launch. I don't.

The age av $499 high-end GPU started already last year, because we had a historical competition, and ATi had finally manged to beat the nVidia-performance. But nVidia chose to "jump over" the GPU who should compete with 5-series, and then ..... you look at the 4870x2 vs 5970 launch-prices and you tell me what append?.

I hope ATI and Nividia has not agreed on a "jump-over" game, because that's the only game that can bring back the $600-GPU from the death.

[ElSel10]

NV finally found final CLOCKS of GTX 470/480. Cards are ready to launch, will be in second half of March in reviews. There is one word: Gemini, when GF100 will be launched, remember for that word! Bye fans!

Gemini is the dual GF100 card, that was leaked a while ago

Can't wait!!!

[***Deimos***]

The age av $499 high-end GPU started already last year, because we had a historical competition, and ATi had finally manged to beat the nVidia-performance. But nVidia chose to "jump over" the GPU who should compete with 5-series, and then ..... you look at the 4870x2 vs 5970 launch-prices and you tell me what append?.

I hope ATI and Nividia has not agreed on a "jump-over" game, because that's the only game that can bring back the $600-GPU from the death.

death of $600 video card? maybe by $1.
MSRP of 5970 is $599.

Lack of competition and availability:
newegg avg price $700.

Only $830 8800 ULTRA was more.
Even dual G200, GTX295 MSRP was **only** $499 (IMHO nVidia partners complained about losing A LOT of money on each one compared to GTX280/275/260).

[NapalmV5]

Gemini is the dual GF100 card, that was leaked a while ago

Can't wait!!!

yeh gemini goes back to november

but "gemini" dont always mean dual lol

then again maybe it is dual fermi

[Tim]

yeh gemini goes back to november

but "gemini" dont always mean dual lol

then again maybe it is dual fermi

Stop...posting...rubbish....

[Sam_oslo]

death of $600 video card? maybe by $1.
MSRP of 5970 is $599.

Lack of competition and availability:
newegg avg price $700.

Only $830 8800 ULTRA was more.
Even dual G200, GTX295 MSRP was **only** $499 (IMHO nVidia partners complained about losing A LOT of money on each one compared to GTX280/275/260).

You see that $599-monster came back from the death just because nVidia "jumped over" the GPU that should compete with it. If you remember, ATi had announced $499 for 5970 to start with, But the lack of competition not only brought back that $600-monster from the death, but also ended up selling for over $700 too.

[Luka_Aveiro]

So, the conclusion is AMD's high prices are nVidia's fault for not delivering competition.

Sounds very logical.

[annihilat0r]

So, the conclusion is AMD's high prices are nVidia's fault for not delivering competition.

Sounds very logical.

Exactly. When Nvidia prices its cards high because of a lack of competition, they are greedy monsters out for the money in our pockets. But when AMD does the same this is only fair because NV couldn't put up a competitive product.

[Olivon]

So true annihilat0r ...

[Sam_oslo]

LOL, nobody does charity work for nerds these days.
Prices are based on competition, and without a proper completion everybody will try to squeeze the most out of us, and they call it business, you know.

[NapalmV5]

Stop...posting...rubbish....

you guys...just dont...get it....

read zedx post above a few times

dont worry itll come to you come march

till then

[h0bbes]

Exactly. When Nvidia prices its cards high because of a lack of competition, they are greedy monsters out for the money in our pockets. But when AMD does the same this is only fair because NV couldn't put up a competitive product.

People are more sympathetic with AMD simply because AMD probably needs the money more than Nvidia

[thatdude90210]

Could be that he meant Gemini the Zodiac sign. In which case, Gemini would be May 21 to June 20.