that does sound about right. It's reasonable to believe that GF will have 768 and 1536 MB of memory, but again, it's questionable how much does memory brings to power draw? Also you're correct to power limitation, 300W is the nominal wall, but c'mone 300W for single chip GPU? that doesn't make sense!
for the sake of argument let's say that 448 SP Fermi @ 1400MHz and 3GB of DDR5 @ 4GHz consume 225W, how much do you think it would consume with 1,5GB? IMHO best case scenario is 190W, and if I recall correctly that's the figure someone mentioned for GeForce based Fermi.
Anyhow best case scenario for performance is the level of GTX275 SLi, and that would give NV right say that GT300 is twice powerful than GT200, and faster than 5870, but slower to 5970. It will all comedown to price and availability.
What's safe to say is that NV will not have fastest card on the planet (no bragging rights), and that we'll not see DualGPU Fermi until TSMC provide shrink of their 40nm tech.





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