ye, i'd say it's 2-3 years.
it'll take some time for dx11 to mature and make it into games. yes, there are quite a few games with dx11 support already and in the near future, but i think these make only use of very few dx11 features. yes, some of these already feature e.g. tessellation, but in my opinion the things such features are used for right now are very negligible. look at the unigine heaven benchmark what tessellation is capable of.
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