i think based only on physics youd have to see a change.
if the air is X and the water is X+5C (called Y) and the CPU is Y+5C (called Z). then in this case your CPU would always be X+10=Z and always 10C above any air temperature you have. this is how we get a C/W curve or ratio (once CPU Watts are known). it should not matter what the air temp is, your C/W ratio is constant as long as airflow, waterflow and pressure do not change.
unless im way wrong here and CW is affected by temperature somehow, i do know that at lower temp CPUs use less heat, but should be insignificant in a non professional test environment. but also means that if your air temp went down, then your CPU temp would have gone down even more, not going higher
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