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Thread: Nvidia GT300 yields are under 2%

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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by 003 View Post
    No they didn't. Plenty of silicon chips are as big or bigger than GT200.
    Means that GT200 wouldn't be too big? Name me 5 chips bigger than GT200. I will name you 500 chips smaller than GT200 in return.

    G300 is smaller than GT200 but larger than GT200b.
    Source?

    Larrabee is supposed to be bigger than GT200.
    Intels fabs are somewhat ahead of those of TSMC, hence they can produce bigger chips somewhat easier, hence direct comparison is somewhat flawed. Though it holds some value.

    IF this is causing problems for Nvidia, I am sure they have a backup plan. Get GT300 working, slash 200-series prices, do some PR stuff, rename, driver tricks, rename some more, more PR stuff. It is amazing how much Nvidia can do(and has done, as history suggests) without having new chips to show.
    Last edited by Calmatory; 09-16-2009 at 02:23 AM.

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    The following is the most sensible text about this matter: (posted earlier in this thread, from Anadtech)

    Can it be that bad? Sure, it can always be zero.

    Let's just assume ALL of Charlie's numbers and sources are 100% correct...its four wafers.

    Getting low yields on four wafers is not exactly uncommon. And it especially comes as no surprise for a hot lot as typically hot lots have nearly all the inline inspection metrology steps skipped in order to reduce the cycle-time all the more.

    Those inline inspections are present in the flow for standard priority wip for a reason, related to both yield (reworks and cleanups) as well as cost reduction (eliminate known dead wip earlier in the flow).

    I really pity anyone who is wasting their time attempting to extrapolate the future health of an entire product lineup based on tentative results from four hot-lotted wafers. That's not a put down to anyone who is actually doing just that, including Charlie, its an honest empathetic response I have for them because they really are wasting their time chasing after something with error bars so wide they can't see the ends of the whiskers from where they stand at the moment.

    Now if we were talking about results averaged from say 6-8 lots and a minimum of 100-200 wafers ran thru the fab at standard priority (i.e. with all the standard yield enhancement options at play) then I'd be more inclined to start divining something from the remnants of the tea leaves here.

    But just four wafers? Much ado about nothing at the moment, even IF all of the claimed details themselves are true.

    This would have been far more interesting had the yields on those four wafers came back as 60% or 80%, again not that such yield numbers could be used to say anything about the average or the stdev of the yield distribution but it would speak to process capability and where there is proven capability there is an established pathway to moving the mean of the distribution to that yield territory.

    But getting zero, or near-zero, yield is the so-called trivial result, it says almost nothing about process yield to get four wafers at zero yield. All it takes is one poorly performing machine during one process step and you get four wafers with yield killing particles spewed on them.

    Sounds the most plausible, leaving any conjecture moot. As they die set the lith, and refine their angle, etc.


    But will Nvidia have a $299 DX11 part...? That is the question. If not, they loose!

    Extreme high-end cards are awesome, but only a few people ever buy those.

    Xmas is coming, if people are going to upgrade to a new system, they will do it for Xmas and Windows 7 and Microsoft is going to make sure the whole world knows about it come October 22nd.



    So, after millions of Xmas shoppers buy new computers with ATi DX11 cards... who's left to be waiting for Nvidia re-branders and $499 GT300s..?

    Those 100k people who waited for a nVidia DX11 cards to go on sale in January, aren't enough to bring in profits for Nvidia !

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xoulz View Post
    But will Nvidia have a $299 DX11 part...? That is the question. If not, they loose!
    you mean your not sure? its pretty obvious isnt it?
    on nvidias recent roadmaps gt200 is a q1 part, so there is no way they will have any dx11 part for christmas, ie in late november which is when shops and distries stock up for christmas.

    even if it would be out by then, it certainly wouldnt be 299$...

    but that doesnt mean nvidia loses... they lose a lot of potential sales... but is it really that much? what games do you need a faster card than a 285 for these days? unless your on a 30" monitor that number can be counted on one hand, especially if you take into account games that might be interesting to play for one certain person, nobody is going to want to play all of those demanding games...

    nobody needs or can make any use of dx11 for now and for the next couple of months, and even then itll be more like a patched on tech demo than really a notable diference...

    what nvidia really needs is a cheaper gt200, they dont NEED dx11, and they dont need a monster perf gt300 chip... i hope nvidia realizes this as well and doesnt put all their efforts into gt300

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    Quote Originally Posted by saaya View Post
    snip..... what nvidia really needs is a cheaper gt200, they dont NEED dx11, and they dont need a monster perf gt300 chip...
    I might agree at some point, nVidia needs to price their GT200 line-up aggressively in order to gain profit and stay afloat till GT300.
    But its one thing they're not familiar with.

    Would anybody buy a GTX295 at $375-390?
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    Quote Originally Posted by labs23 View Post
    I might agree at some point, nVidia needs to price their GT200 line-up aggressively in order to gain profit and stay afloat till GT300.
    But its one thing they're not familiar with.

    Would anybody buy a GTX295 at $375-390?
    I would, if XFX give one of those sweet PSU's free with the XFX 295

    Quote Originally Posted by saaya View Post
    haha, no, not as far as i know

    1. charlie didnt like nvidia before that event at last years computex
    2. derek perez threw some muffin or sandwich at charlie, who spilled a cup of hot coffe over him, after that perez wanted to attack charlie but was held back or didnt do it... dont know the full details...

    What i heard was charlie disclosed something that nvidia did not want him too and he did not take it off the site, after that nvidia cut him off from the family. It was after this when charlie demanded justice from derek perez did things went the way u said with the muffin, etc... "DOnt know full story either"
    Last edited by ajaidev; 09-16-2009 at 09:07 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by saaya View Post
    you mean your not sure? its pretty obvious isnt it?
    on nvidias recent roadmaps gt200 is a q1 part, so there is no way they will have any dx11 part for christmas, ie in late november which is when shops and distries stock up for christmas.

    even if it would be out by then, it certainly wouldnt be 299$...

    but that doesnt mean nvidia loses... they lose a lot of potential sales... but is it really that much? what games do you need a faster card than a 285 for these days? unless your on a 30" monitor that number can be counted on one hand, especially if you take into account games that might be interesting to play for one certain person, nobody is going to want to play all of those demanding games...

    nobody needs or can make any use of dx11 for now and for the next couple of months, and even then itll be more like a patched on tech demo than really a notable diference...

    what nvidia really needs is a cheaper gt200, they dont NEED dx11, and they dont need a monster perf gt300 chip... i hope nvidia realizes this as well and doesnt put all their efforts into gt300
    Most people don't upgrade every 12 months. They upgrade every 4 years. So yes, it is "really that much." This is a big hit for nvidia if true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saaya View Post
    you mean your not sure? its pretty obvious isnt it?


    but that doesnt mean nvidia loses... they lose a lot of potential sales... but is it really that much?




    Is it really that much...? YES!


    It's significant.

    Do you understand that people don't buy Computers every month, like you seem to think...? AT best, people make this plunge about every 4 years!



    Don't underestimate how much people spend on Santa Claus. The increasing importance our computers have on our lives is nothing short of a cultural phenomenon. Rampant use of PC's as "Family Centers" and as entertainment and socializing, etc... means this year's Holiday Season is going to be huge for the computer industries !!

    And leading the charge is going to be Microsoft. With the multi-media experience of Zune and Windows 7 ...!

    It's going to be HUGE!

    OVERDONE AND MASSIVE. Don't underestimate marketing and how much people value seamless and ease. You Tube, Facebook, Twitter, eHarmony, Stocks, etc.. unite's the world.

    Microsoft's Windows 7 is going to be in the center of all of that. Record sales!

    That means, indirectly DirectX 11.0 will be important as a standard as well as a marketing thing; DX11, ...even if people don't understand it, the logo will be everywhere, well marketed by both ATi and Microsoft.

    It's going to be EVERYWHERE.


    Mac people are fascinated by QuickTime X ... Microsoft can market Window 7's and DirectX, as an even deeper & richer environment than Macs.

    Microsoft has a bunch of technologies it is selling you with Windows7. Natal, Zune, DX11, Aero, 64bit, easy, powerful, etc..

    Simple is good... standards are good! I think this time around, Microsoft is going to sell the idea of Window7 being more compatible and easy to use.

    Apple might need to be concerned, if people start shopping






    So, If nVidia doesn't have a product for these hungry buyers, ATi will make massive profits and will be able to drop prices once nVidia enters the market (around the Superbowl).. squeezing nVidia's sales.

    All-the-while releasing budget 5600 series, with a final blow. Nvidia will have to play a fine line of dumping chips for market share and profits. Ati could thwart nVidia's attempt to recoup their fab & funding for the GT300 if the only market is the $499 high-end GPUs. As that hi-end market is minuscule to profits to be made in mainstream sales.



    You do understand that the SLI and 4870x2 Market is extremely small... not everyone is Xtreme, we are enthusiasts, you seem to forget that often.




    Investor's don't care if Nvidia's low yield, high-end ($499) GPU sell's some 40k GPU's to a bunch of computer freaks.








    Or, i could just be really high ...?
    Last edited by Xoulz; 09-17-2009 at 02:33 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xoulz View Post


    Don't underestimate how much people spend on Santa Claus. .....this year's Holiday Season is going to be huge for the computer industries !!

    And leading the charge is going to be Microsoft. With the multi-media experience of Zune and Windows 7 ...!

    It's going to be HUGE!

    OVERDONE AND MASSIVE.

    Microsoft's Windows 7 is going to be in the center of all of that. Record sales!

    And you're basing this on what?

    On the fact that unemployment rates continue to climb? Up to 9.7% nationwide as of August with no end in sight....numbers continue to climb, but do look like they're at least slowing down slightly. (August's rise was "only" 0.3% higher than July, and the previous six months' pace of unemployment increase--Dec '08-May '09-- was a 0.4-0.5% increase each month.)

    And we'll have a national unemployment rate well over 10% by Christmas....count on it.

    Or maybe you're basing your optimism on the fact that 16 states have unemployment rates over 10%? And another 7 states are in the 9% range. Maybe it's the three (3) states with unemployment rates that are below 6%...ND, SD, and Nebraska. Yeah, those will do it.

    Here you go....a picture of the unemployment across the U.S. by state/region, as of June '09.




    So what region is going to support a big Christmas? Not the west coast, not anywhere from Florida to Michigan. Maybe the Northeast....which is mired with 8% or higher unemployment across the region. Guess it's all down to the Dakotas and Nebraska.


    I'd wager that the Asus CEO is more correct, that Windows 7 will NOT usher in huge computer sales, not to business, not to home consumers. With the huge economic uncertainties that still abound nationwide, I predict this Christmas will be as dismal as last season, if not worse.

    True, there are signs the economy is picking up slowly. But instead of employment picking up, which is always the last thing to happen when coming out of a recession, the still employed workers are simply being asked to do more, either with long erhours or more productivity expectations.

    If we're lucky, we'll see a "big" Christmas in 2010, and I use the term "big" in relative terms....big only in respect to the '08 and '09 seasons, not to really big holiday seasons like in the mid-'90's.

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    Nothing more to see here

    Alright folks, I think this thread has about run its course.

    The last 5 days worth of posts in this thread have been debate on the credibility of the authors unknown source (and what/if any distortion the author may have brought in) versus the credibility of other equally unnamed sources and I just don't see any reason for Fugger to continue to lose bandwidth to it.

    Thread Closed.


    ^ I've always wanted to say that. If you participated in this circular argument you should log off smiling tonight knowing you were part of the magic that was my first thread closure.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calmatory View Post
    Intels fabs are somewhat ahead of those of TSMC, hence they can produce bigger chips somewhat easier, hence direct comparison is somewhat flawed. Though it holds some value.
    Speaking of Intels fabs those are actual quite far behind both TSMC and GlobalFoundries in terms of transistor density, but I can't speak for yields.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartidiot89 View Post
    Speaking of Intels fabs those are actual quite far behind both TSMC and GlobalFoundries in terms of transistor density, but I can't speak for yields.
    Density isn't everything and is also influenced by the chip design itself, logic has worse density, then lets say sram.

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    NV is already about three months behind, if its really that bad they better scrap gt300, lower the 2xx model prices and develop something new from ground up..

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    Quote Originally Posted by R101 View Post
    NV is already about three months behind, if its really that bad they better scrap gt300, lower the 2xx model prices and develop something new from ground up..
    If you believe Fudzilla GT300 is already built "from ground up"

    http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15535/1/

    We can only confirm that GT300 is not a GT200 in 40nm with DirectX 11 support. It’s a brand new chip that was designed almost entirely from the ground up. Industry sources believe that this is the biggest change since G80 was launched and that you can expect such level of innovation and change.
    Notice any grammar or spelling mistakes? Feel free to correct me! Thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by FischOderAal View Post
    If you believe Fudzilla GT300 is already built "from ground up"

    http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15535/1/
    makes me wonder if it's really a completely new chip. or: what does it take for a chip to be "completely new". if you think about the steps from g80-> gt200 -> gt300, all have been completely new chips (if the rumor @fud holds water), whereas ati/amd focused on improving their older chips and adding new features etc (or does this count as "completely new chip" as well? ).

    the reason i'm thinking about that is, because i'm wondering why nvidia stopped improving chips (like it was from e.g. 6800 to 7800) and aims for completely new ones instead. that has to be way more expensive... or maybe nvidia wasn't able to get more out of their current chips? i don't know...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartidiot89 View Post
    Speaking of Intels fabs those are actual quite far behind both TSMC and GlobalFoundries in terms of transistor density, but I can't speak for yields.
    What do you base that thought on? It is quite much impossible to gain absolute data on how dense the transistors can be manufactured unless the exact same chip is being manufactured on every manufacturers fab.

    As it was said, the transistor density of the core is very much dependent on what kind of parts the core has. Usually simple stuff can be packed densier, e.g. SRAM vs. core logic. Also different parts of core won't shrink too well. As far as I know, for example memory controllers aren't shrinking too well when compared to huge SRAM arrays of cache. So yeah, complex stuff has low density and simple stuff has high density.

    I'm sure Hans could be a big help here.
    Last edited by Calmatory; 09-16-2009 at 06:41 AM.

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    nvda stock -3% in 2 hours of trading.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Calmatory View Post
    Means that GT200 wouldn't be too big? Name me 5 chips bigger than GT200. I will name you 500 chips smaller than GT200 in return.
    Montecito, Tukwila, Montvale, Larrabe, and Altera's Stratix IV.

    Sad that all but one is from Intel...

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    Quote Originally Posted by apt403 View Post
    Montecito, Tukwila, Montvale, Larrabe, and Altera's Stratix IV.

    Sad that all but one is from Intel...
    power7 and nehalem-ex

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chumbucket843 View Post
    power7 and nehalem-ex
    Both are smaller than G200's 576mm2...
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    Quote Originally Posted by LordEC911 View Post
    Both are smaller than G200's 576mm2...
    i think you are missing the point............

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