I think you need to talk with Luka_Aveiro about the nervous breakdown that you both had. Talking always helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
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I think you need to talk with Luka_Aveiro about the nervous breakdown that you both had. Talking always helps.Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
We shouldn't compare 5870 with GTX 295. these are 2 different generations, after all.Quote:
Originally Posted by purecain
Even if GTX 295 could match the performance of 5870, it will be a looser in heat, power usage. Don't mention the DX11 and ...., there is no doubt that 5870 is much better, and it is the way it spoused to be with a new generation specially these with less nm cards
oh i think i understand you very well, but tbh, i couldnt care less why you post those hilarious comments :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
big baseless claims... like what?
pickle surprise? :DQuote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgWn7zbgxZ4
did you guys see the tsmc yield news from digitimes?
0.1-0.3 errors per square inch? fermi = ~ 1square inch...
so every 3-10 fermi chips there is one error? then yields would be 70%+ for fermi and 90% for rv870... weird huh? i wonder if he just made that number up or if he misunderstood it... maybe 0.1-0.3 errors per square millimeter?
that would mean 2-8 errors per fermi chip, on average... and around 1-3 errors per rv870 chip on average... nah thats too much, right?
weird...
At least you admit to trolling. :up:Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
They are on the market at the same time, 'nuff said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
Jesus, what the...Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Wow, you're a smart guy :rofl:Quote:
Originally Posted by LesGrossman
Keep contributing
LOL, that's because the replacement is delayed, and that's why we are here. But last generation is usually a kind of hot and power hungry crap compared to the new one, specially when a die shrink separates them, 'nuff said' .Quote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
Where the **** did you get the picture of my son and who the **** gave you permission to plaster it on the internet???Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
[edit]
Just kidding. :D But I hope I made my point. It should be illegal to do that siht, unless of course he's your son!
and I was about to BRACE FOR EPIC....Quote:
Originally Posted by flippin_waffles
It could mean square centimeters......Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Linky
:ROTF: your point was that he doesn't know how to code efficiently :clap:Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
my link disproves your point;Quote:
his genius is completely wasted on getting "ok-good" graphics on consoles... im not even sure hes good at that, hes good at pushing graphics to the limits, not on getting the job done with the least possible resources...
Yeah, right, so a card that is supposed to be much more expensive to make than 5970 and that is expected to be faster as well will be $200 faster?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
Seriously, don't get your hopes high, everyone and their grandmother knows that Fermi will not come cheap.
Some games with heavy texture mods (and some aero sims I think). But you have a point, no doubt. :yepp:Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
No way GTX470 is going to be higher clocked than GTX480, just look at 5870 and 5850...Quote:
Originally Posted by Your_Boss
ROFL! Hilarious! :lol:Quote:
Originally Posted by -Sweeper_
More like a multiplatform one, like all of them these days. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
And Carmack promised that PC gamers won't be disappointed as usually! :yepp:
Source or it didn't happen...Quote:
Originally Posted by xdan
Any proof? I am hoping for a simultaneous launch. ID and Bethesda haven't failed to satisfy before.Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
From the first pics it seems to be as long or a bit shorter than 295.Quote:
Originally Posted by fiskov
Why not? They are both for sale right now, and every person interested in buying a graphics card right now should consider all options. GFX295 isn't bad at all, especially if you're a fan of PhysX, CUDA, 3D or crunching. Or an ATI driver hater...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
Are you on a misson to annoy certain posters or something? This is all I see you doing in this thread...Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
No, I'm only laughing at stupid (?) people posting hilarious stuff ( "GTX 470 performing better than the GTX 480" is the best until now :D )Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
where did you get your pricing on gpu dies? each wafer can fit roughly 94 dies and costs $5000. if fermi get's 40% yield it's $131/gpu. at a similar defect rate, ati would get roughly 70% yield which is about $48/gpu. Add in extra cost for PCB of fermi needing more memory chips, wider bus, more connections, etc...you end up with well over $100 more per complete card.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
http://www.brightsideofnews.com/prin...-analysis.aspx
If the price was up to the producers, a GPU would cos 5 times more, because these guys are "businessmen" and never get enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
The price is more impacted by the competition then the production-cost or producer-desires. It is all based on a simple rule, demand and availability. A competing ATi card will reduce the demand and price, it is a simple rule that apply to all products.
A good example on how this works:
ATi had no competition for 5x-series. You take a look at the 5790-prices and compare it to 4870x2-launch price and tell me why it is so much more?
$50 difference isn't too much... $599 MRSP vs $549 MRSP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
http://i301.photobucket.com/albums/n...ard/4870x2.jpg
You're, on the other hand, proposing ground breaking pricing.
48 ROPs has been known for a while now. :clap: And clock speeds from 600-650MHz is very reasonable.Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
I've been proposing the top dog for $499 (if ATi puts up competition), so actually I'm proposing the same difference, but the opposite way.Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
Because there's no competition atm, and whichever company has the advantage it's the consumers that always get screwed, usually willingly though :yepp:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
Ram prices are higher, and the cores cost more to make. The price will drop, but only if ATI are forced to do so, why drop they price when they aren't even overstocked?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
News here :
http://vr-zone.com/articles/nvidia-l...mate/8496.html
Quote:
The price rumours pegged the Geforce GTX 470 at $499, with the GTX 480 rumours varying between $599 and $679.
Read more carefully behrouz :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by behrouz
This 's no newz at all, this article just says that the prices you have given are totally illegitimate :
Quote:
"NVIDIA and our launch partners have not released pricing or pre-order information yet. Any Web sites claiming to be taking pre-orders should not be considered legitimate."
Exactly, and they have a tendency to get extra greedy without a competition.Quote:
Originally Posted by insurgent
ATi kept the supply of 5x-series just under the marked demand, because there was no competing nVidia GPU that could fill the vacuum for high-end GPU. ATi had the opportunity (and all those good reasons, including bad yield :p:) to keep the supply at the desired level for marketing-department.
Therefore the real retail-prices ended up way over MRSP. I was considering to get a 5970 at that time, but couldn't find anything under $700 in stock for a long while.
ati did have alot of problem at first.... maybe it is possible that its the later.... 2-8 error per fermi chips...Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
id like to have real numbers on those.. but nvidia will never release those info :(
A 40 nm wafer is more expensive than a 55 nm wafer, hence the pricing difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
Quote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
eeeee id like to have info on that... the waffers are still 12 inch from 55nm to 40nm so the price shouldnt change.... but i could be wrong.... thus a linky to help me understand more
The wafers are the same size but the fabrication equipment is newer / more advanced / more expensive etc, plus there will be a lower volume of wafers coming out of any new process so that increases per wafer costs as well.
GTX 480 In stock http://www.sabrepc.com/p-174-nvidia-...press-x16.aspx:ROTF:
Any guinea pig? :rofl:
right... It annoys me when insignificant online "retailers" get hasty. Who in there right mind is going to let $700 of theirs sit in someones greasy pocket for the next 8-12 weeks? How about waiting until its actually released?
Still recycling the same crap man ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Metroid
1) It's fake
2) Even the specs are wrong
3) That shop is looking for its first ever customer ( a stupid customer actually :D )
4) Here's a real pre-order for the GTX 470 & the GTX 480
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17851/1/Quote:
Partners have the card
According to our info, Nvidia partners are happily playing with Fermi-based GTX 470 already, but Nvidia is still holding back the final specifications. The card will most probably be at Cebit, and hopefully Nvidia will give the final specs to partners by then.
After couple of inquiries we found out that even though you can get estimated performance figures based on what partners are looking at right now, these are still not final as Nvidia is yet to give out a word about the final clocks of the GTX 470. The safest guess is that it will be around 20 to 25 percent faster than the Geforce GTX 285, which puts it somewhere between the HD 5850 and the HD 5870.
We also heard that even the cooler might also be changed and according to our info Nvidia hasn't officially talked about the price either. Nvidia is going to give its partners the final specs of the GTX 470 next week, probably on Monday, as some partners are certainly going to show the cards at Cebit.
if thats right then we gonna see some specs maybe some more info next couple of days
This is a rather long post, you dont have to read all the steps i did, just scroll to the bottom and read the conclusion and then scroll up to see how i got those numbers in case you wonder :D
and thx for anybody pointing out mistakes or irregularities! i dont expect those calculations to be 100% correct, if im somewhere in the ballpark or maybe on the parking lot thats still a good enough perspective to peek at where we are, whats going on, and what might happen ^^
cool, thanks for the link :toast:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kej
so they are at 0.1-0.3 defects per square cm...?
fermi is 2.4x2.4cm so that makes it 5.76cm^2
so 0.576 defects per fermi chip, and there are roughly 100 of them on a wafer, so:
0.1=58 defects/wafer
0.2=115 defects/wafer
0.3=172 defects/wafer
assuming the defects spread evenly (they dont, they arent completely random but this is easier to calculate to get a rough idea)
fully functional yields (480+5870)
0.1 = 42 GF100s, 102 rv870s (40 vs 66% yields)
0.2 = 0 GF100s, 45 rv870s (0 vs 33% yields)
0.3 = 0 GF100s, 0 rv870s
thats fully functional chips, if they can disable the defect affected part of the chip and it works fine, thatll be a gtx470 or 5850. lets say 50% of the chips with 1 defect can still be used:
salvaged yields (470+5850)
0.1 = 29 GF100s, 29 rv870s (29% vs 18%)
0.2 = 43 GF100s, 58 rv870s (115 defects for 100 chips = 85 single defect chips) (43% vs 36%)
0.3 = 14 GF100s, 74 rv870s (172 defects for 160 chips = 148 single defect chips, 172 defects for 100 chips = 28 single defect chips) (14% vs 18%)
combined yields:
0.1 = 71 GF100s, 131 rv870s (71 vs 82% yields)
0.2 = 43 GF100s, 103 rv870s (43 vs 64% yields)
0.3 = 14 GF100s, 74 rv870s (14 vs 46% yields)
these numbers are very rough guesses!
i know they arent accurate and might be way off, i still thought its better than to have no numbers whatsoever... how evenyl the defects spread, and how well ati and nvidia can deal with single and multiple defects per chip and how many parts they can still salvage and turn into a partly or maybe even fully functional chip if they used some backup logic is hard to tell, if not impossible since those are some of their biggest secrets...
i didnt expect the difference in combined yields between rv870 and gf100 to change that much depending on defect rates... i thought the chip size difference would result in a more or less fixed delta in yields between the two. for example double the chip size is 1/4 the yields, more or less regardless of defect rate... but that doesnt seem to be the case at all?
since there are only ~100 fermis on a wafer, an average defect rate of 0.2/cm^2 would mean close to no fully functional 512core fermi... that perfectly fits the single digit yield rumors... at 0.2 there are almost no fully functional gf100s and not that many salvaged 470s either. at 0.3 even salvaged parts are scarce because most parts are hit by not only 1 but 2 defects...
so the worse the defect rate, the better rv870 looks yield wise, and the better the defect rate, the closer combined yields of gf100 and rv870 get...
he said that the iphone is a lot more powerful than most people think, does that sound like he had to tweak a lot for efficiency to get it working?Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
my main point wasnt that he sucks at efficiency, but that his talent is wasted on tweaking efficiency instead of pushing realism in graphics to the next level. lets say hes good at efficiency, then so what... a very efficiently coded game will run at good fps on cr4ppy hardware and uneccesarily high fps on highend hardware. a game that is coded unefficiently but looks awesome and is somewhat playable on highend hardware will always look much better than a game that focusses on efficiency.
now what do you think will create more hype and be a more successful game? a game that looks ok-good and runs on old and slow hardware, or a game that looks really nice but needs expensive highend hardware? if its only about graphics, then the latter will clearly be more successful and hyped and played than the prior.
it could be... look at 5830 and 5850...Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
and if heat is the main limiting factor, then 480s might need their vcore dropped to fit into the tdp envelope, the 470 has less blocks and can hence run slightly higher vcore and clocks within the same tdp envelope...
yeah but there arent too many people around that doom3 knocked out of their socks... :/Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
oh yeah, 3.5 was 55nm, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by weston
40nm are 5k each... i remember reading that somewhere...thx :toast:
95 or 100, no big difference, 5%, but 100 is easier to calculate :D
5k wafer cost means 42% higher wafer cost, and lets take the rough numbers i calculated.
0.1 = 71 GF100s, 131 rv870s (71 vs 82% yields)
0.2 = 43 GF100s, 103 rv870s (43 vs 64% yields)
0.3 = 14 GF100s, 74 rv870s (14 vs 46% yields)
if you put it in a graph you get something like this:
GF100 vs rv870
10 - 45
20 - 50
30 - 55
40 - 60
50 - 70
60 - 75
70 - 90
while gf100 gets more and more functional chips overall, rv870 combined yields dont improve much in quantity, but in quality, they get less damaged 5850 parts and hence have more fully functional part they can use for 5870s. since the demand is much higher for 5850s compared to 5870s, good yields at tsmc actually dont really help ati, as they get more fully functional parts than they need, and their overall yields dont improve much, meaning the price barely drops... rv870 is clearly engineered for bad yields, and if defect rates actually reach a good level, rv870 looses its price advantage.
still, even at the same yields, gf100 will cost notably more than rv870, so the die size advantage results in a constant price advantage.
looking at prices...
assuming 100%=100 fGF100 per wafer
assuming 100%=160 rv870s per wafer
GF100 vs rv870
10 - 45 = 500$ vs 70$
20 - 50 = 250$ vs 63$
30 - 55 = 166$ vs 57$
40 - 60 = 125$ vs 52$
50 - 70 = 100$ vs 45$
60 - 75 = 83$ vs 42$
70 - 90 = 71$ vs 35$
nvidia clearly never expected to get lots of fully functional chips back, just like with GT200 where most of their business is with cut down chips, 260 and 275 cards.
looking at the price difference between gf100 and rv870:
GF100 vs rv870
10 - 45 = 500$ vs 70$ = 430$
20 - 50 = 250$ vs 63$ = 187$
30 - 55 = 166$ vs 57$ = 109$
40 - 60 = 125$ vs 52$ = 73$
50 - 70 = 100$ vs 45$ = 55$
60 - 75 = 83$ vs 42$ = 41$
70 - 90 = 71$ vs 35$ = 36$
even with great yields gf100 costs double the price of an rv870... but thats not that important, the actual price is what matters, or the price difference...
GF100 will need a more complex pcb, bigger heatsinks and more memory chips... but i think those price differences are not that big... lets say 25$ for all of that...
10 - 45 = 500$ vs 70$ = 430$= 455$
20 - 50 = 250$ vs 63$ = 187$= 212$
30 - 55 = 166$ vs 57$ = 109$= 134$
40 - 60 = 125$ vs 52$ = 73$= 98$
50 - 70 = 100$ vs 45$ = 55$= 80$
60 - 75 = 83$ vs 42$ = 41$= 66$
70 - 90 = 71$ vs 35$ = 36$= 71$
how much faster does a vga have to be to cost how much more?
its hard to tell because everybody has a different idea of value and brand and everybody has a certain limitation in their head, both a delta limitation of how much more a card can cost than another comparable one, as well as a fixed limitation of the max amount of money they are willing to spend overall...
lets just look at the current pricing structure and see how its working out right now:
lowest newegg prices + performance from tpu, relative to 5970 in 1920x1200:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/ASUS/EAH5970/31.html
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100%
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81%
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71%
GTX285 1gb 375$ 58%
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62%
HD5830 1gb 250$ 45%*1
GTX275 1gb no stock 54%
GTX260 1gb 225$ 47%
HD5770 1gb 175$ 43%
HD4870 1gb 175$ 44%
HD5750 1gb 150$ 37%
GTS250 1gb 125$ 36%
HD4850 1gb 125$ 35%
*1 3% faster than the 4870 according to:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/A...rectCu/28.html
3% of 44%=1.2%=~45% of a 5970
*2 5% faster than a GTS250 according to:
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/P...50_PCS/30.html
5% of 36%=0.9%=37% of a 5970
now lets sort it according to performance and then look at the prices relative to the 5970:
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100% 100%
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 75%
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 57%
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 46%
GTX285 1gb 375$ 58% 53%
GTX260 1gb 225$ 47% 32%
HD5830 1gb 250$ 45%*1 35%
HD5770 1gb 175$ 43% 25%
HD4870 1gb 175$ 44% 25%
HD5750 1gb 150$ 37% 21%
GTS250 1gb 125$ 36% 18%
HD4850 1gb 125$ 35% 18%
there are some interesting conclusions we can make right away...
despite complaints, the 5870 and 5850 are not overpriced and offer a good price perf ratio for highend cards. and despite complaints about the 5970 itself, its price performance ratio compared to the 295 and 285 is pretty good.
the 5770 seems to be the best deal, offering almost half the performance of a 5970 and weighing in at only 1/4 the price, with the 260 and 5830 looking pretty good as well.
lets look at difference between perf and price relative to the 5970 to see how far the price can be pushed away from where it should be according to relative performance:
+ = cost is higher than perf relation = bad deal
- = perf is above price relation = good deal
name - cost - %perf - %price - %/%
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100% 100% 0
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 75% -6
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 57% -14
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 46% -16
GTX285 1gb 375$ 58% 53% -5
GTX260 1gb 225$ 47% 32% -15
HD5830 1gb 250$ 45%*1 35% -10
HD5770 1gb 175$ 43% 25% -18
HD4870 1gb 175$ 44% 25% -17
HD5750 1gb 150$ 37% 21% -16
GTS250 1gb 125$ 36% 18% -18
HD4850 1gb 125$ 35% 18% -17
the lower we go perf wise, the better the deal gets, but keep in mind there is a minimum performance people need or want which makes them less attractive at some point. in general cards seem to be priced to offer around 10-15 points more perf than they cost, both in relation to the fastest card.
a -5 value seems to be acceptable, but already limits demand...
lets say a 0-20 point relation is the playing field. less and you have a show stopper, more and your just stupid, giving away free performance, or your manufacturing costs are so low that you can afford flooding the market with great price perf parts. this happened several times in the past, and its always lots of fun to surf on those flood waves :D
so, realistically, gf100 the highest price fermi COULD charge for is around 0 points, which means just as many percentage points of the fastest cards price as it reaches percentage points of the fastest cards performance.
looking at the yields you can tell that it costs around 200$ more than an rv870 card at bad yields and roughly 100$ more at ok-good yields. if the yields are truly as terrible as some people claim, ie ~10%, its impossible for the card to reach a performance level that would justify that price. lets assume yields are bad-ok or ok-good, ie ~100$ additional costs compared to rv870 or ~200$. lets see how fast the cards need to be make as much money in revenue as rv870 does.
200$ premium per card over rv870
name - cost - %perf - %price - %/%
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100% 100% 0
GF100-U 3gb 600$ 85% 85% 0
GF100 1.5gb 525$ 75% 75% 0
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 75% -6
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 57% -14
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 46% -16
GTX285 1gb 375$ 58% 53% -5
GTX260 1gb 225$ 47% 32% -15
85% vs 71% = 14% 5970 perf points faster = 14/0.71=20%
75% vs 62% = 13% 5970 perf points faster = 13/0.62=21%
so GF100 has to be AT LEAST 20-21% faster than rv870 to cost 200$ more per card...
that means if the yields are bad (~15-30%) then fermi could still sell at least some cards for an "ok" price performance level IF either the 470 or the 480 is ~20% faster than the 5870 or 5850. if GF100 performs even better then it might even turn into a good deal. if a GF100 part can beat an rv870 part by 40% and costs 200$ more, then it would have a %/% relation of 15 points which would make it an excellent deal.
Bad yields (15-30) - good performance (40)
name - cost - %perf - %price - %/%
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100% 100% 0
GF100-U 3gb 600$ 100% 85% 15
GF100 1.5gb 525$ 90% 75% 15
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 75% -6
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 57% -14
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 46% -16
so according to these calculations and speculations(!) even bad yields of 15-30% for GF100 would only hurt its success if its performance would be only 20% faster than rv870 or even less... if its performance is 30-40% faster than rv870 cards it would make it a great price perf offer (same price/perf but higher perf) even if gf100 cards cost 500-600$ (200$ more than rv870 cards)
if performance is only 20% faster, they will be bad price perf cards if they cost 200$ more than rv870... BUT even if the performance isnt that great, if nvidia can reach yields of 40% or more, the price difference in card cost between rv870 and gf100 cards drops to ~100$ or less. at that point the price performance would be equal to that of rv870 cards, assuming identical margins on the cards.
OK yields (40+) - bad performance (20)
name - cost - %perf - %price - %/%
HD5970 2gb 700$ 100% 100% 0
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 75% -6
GF100-U 3gb 500$ 85% 71% 14
GF100 1.5gb 425$ 75% 60% 15
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 57% -14
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 46% -16
conclusion:
nvidia needs either 40% perf advantage over rv870 at bad yields (15-30%) or at least a 20% perf advantage over rv870 at ok yields (40%+) to be competitive.
thats the GF100 attack window, worse yields than 15% and the card becomes too expensive to possibly offer reasonable performance for the price it costs. less than a 20% perf advantage over rv870 and nvidia would need great yields to make GF100 competitive. oh and before somebody points out that ati could lower their cards costs... yes, they could, and most likely will, at least to some degree, BUT all these calculations are based on the yield relation between gf100 and rv870... its unlikely that there are too big differences in the relation of yields of rv870 and gf100... neither of them will suddenly improve their yields while the other one has the same yields, both SHOULD improve their yields more or less at the same pace. so, IF ati lowers their card prices, they will do so by reducing their margins. i assumed identical margins for both rv870 and gf100 cards, so both the rv870 and gf100 cards prices contain a healthy margin which both of them can and HOPEFULLY will, cut down in a price war this summer as soon as fermi starts shipping in real volume :D
but again, if ati custs their costs 50$, nvidia can do the same and they will still both have identical margins and make the same money per sold card.
pheew, what a post ^^
Sascha killing time :D
Sure you don't want to help me by writing some text for a few reviews ? :p:
Agreed, what a post :cheers: Well done Sascha!
This will happen.Quote:
if its performance is 30-40% faster than rv870 cards it would make it a great price perf offer (same price/perf but higher perf) even if gf100 cards cost 500-600$ (200$ more than rv870 cards)
yeah, 40nm = immersion lithography, basically they submerge the mask and wafer in a special liquid to improve the photon paths traveling from the mask to the wafer, and they use double patterning, every wafer gets exposed twice, and possibly from different angles and a different mask set, to improve the patterns.Quote:
Originally Posted by trinibwoy
that results in extra costs... not to mention that the wafers need to be of better quality as well the smaller the designs that get etched into them get...
i always thought that by the time a new node is ready for mp, the tools have advanced and evolved so much that the new tools for the new node will cost as much as the old tool costed when that node launched... but that doesnt seem to be the case... at least not anymore, i think it used to work like that for a while...
you mean you just send me some random numbers and i write a 5000 word essay interpreting them and figuring out what they could possibly mean and decode some hints about an assasination date of president obama from those numbers? :lol:Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
thx, your welcome :)Quote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
oh wait, your making fun of me again right? :lol:
f u! :mad: :D hahaha
well... you cant possibly know that :DQuote:
Originally Posted by xdan
i recommend you to put an "i believe" or "im sure" in front of it to soften a possible fall on the face in case nvidia screws up somehow and somebody brings up this old quote :D hehehe
Pheew, what a post ^^. Even if I am impressed this time.
But I can't agree with the convolution, because even if all those long lines holds true, the price and performance of the competing GPU from ATi would have a much bigger impact on the price of Fermi, then the bad yields .
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
Advertisement for your store :eek: i expected more from you :shakes:
I recommend locking you in with your half arsed fermi's :D
Fixed :D, nice article/story/huge arse post tough :)Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Sarcasm had very good yields :DQuote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
Great write up :up:Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
omfg saaya a fuking novel lol :D
Oh man, that was a good post! I read the whole thing, and I totally agree. $600 for a card that's 30% faster than the 5870 would be a good price, and with any kind of decent yield, it will be there. nVidia might have to settle for small margins with the first series of fermi based cards, but they will sell ok -as long as they perform 20% or more faster than the 5870. I'm sure there will be benchmarks and games where the difference is 50% or more, and there will be games where ATI actually outperforms it.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
The only thing i would argue is that ATI is better at getting good yields than nVidia, so even with the same defect rate, just based on the GPU design, ATI will have a bigger gap than you figured - just a small detail :) If nVidia can get to 50% yield, that would help a lot though!
--Don't forget though, ATI is allegedly prepping an optimized 5870 with higher speeds, much like the 4890 from the 4870. This will be ~15-20% faster than the 5870 and fermi will need to compete with that card, not just the current model.
thx :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
what do you mean?
thx :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaidev
isnt that the same what i wrote?
Quote:
nvidia needs either 40% perf advantage over rv870 at bad yields (15-30%) or at least a 20% perf advantage over rv870 at ok yields (40%+) to be competitive.
tu :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Metroid
yeah i guess i should sell this to ipad users huh? theyd probably even pay 30$ for it if they are smart enough to buy an ipad for 800$ heh :DQuote:
Originally Posted by cowie
i wish somebody would post something like what i wrote but with actual numbers :(
even if we could get actual numbers about G80 or even older gpus, that would be so interesting to read! and it would give us a rough idea how yields and defect rates and chip sizes and costs play together... i mean nvidia and ati are pretty good at keeping their gpu prices a secret... its really hard to find out how much a card costs compared to the gpu alone etc...
NP :)Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
I mean, supply and demand is the major driving force for deciding the price of GPU, and everything else too.
Bad yield means more expensive manufacturing cost, but who care about nVidias cost? I have never asked for the cost before buying a GPU, do you?, nobody else does.
nVidia can spend $8000 on a chip, but nobody would give it to them, well that's if ATi could deliver a better performing GPU for less.
And then we'd be missing the contract's terms between the manufacturers and TSMC :p:Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Having the numbers you're looking for and all those details will remain a journalists/enthusiasts wet dream man.
If somebody leaks any of those info will drop dead all out of sudden :p:
thx, i wouldnt be surprised if somebody mentions that its completely off :DQuote:
Originally Posted by weston
still, its interesting to look at those numbers and juggle them around, even if my yield numbers are off, the price and performance numbers arent, and those actually say a lot... those numbers are a fact, and they are rules of the real world nvidia needs to follow as well... so when they think about where to position gf100, or probably thought about it months ago, they must have been coming to at least similar conclusions...
i think nvidia doesnt even need 50% combined yields, i think if they get 40% combined yields thats good enough for them to make money even if the performance isnt that great... the funny thing about rv870 is that it really shines at bad yields and i heard of 2 tricks ati did to improve yields and even turn rv870 chips that have a defect into a full blown 5870.Quote:
Originally Posted by weston
ati doesnt need good yields to make money with rv870, and actually they dont benefit that much from improved yields as nvidia...
like i wrote, as soon as 40nm has OK yields they already get more full blown rv870 chips than they probably actually need to fill in demand... maybe that was their plan, to refresh rv870 and instead of binning parts based on defects they will then bin them on properties ie higher clocks. makes sense...
i heard they actually dont...Quote:
Originally Posted by weston
the yields are good enough for them to go for a rv890 now with 2000sps, hopefully bigger caches and most importantly more l2 cache bandwidth... but then again... they would be close to gf100... and does ati really want that? wouldnt it make more sense to focus on 28nm already? then again, its still 6-12 months away and atis strategy is to start with an entry level part and not highend... so a highend 28nm part is 12+ months away, possibly 18 months... and they need something to refresh the performance segment...
thats the one thing nvidia has worked out so well, the best business is offering the best, by being slightly faster than everybody else, but charging a nice premium for it... thats how you can make the most money...
so that would mean an rv890 would make a lot of sense, especially since a 28nm highend refresh is still a year or so away... and in a few months 40nm yields should be good enough to make a fermi sized chip with ok yields... and if its based on rv870 then they can even sell chips with several defects as 5870, 5850 or even 5830 and do a lot of recycling :D
you should care about it, because if you know that a part costs xxx to make, you know that its price wont drop a lot, or will probably drop a lot when a new competitive product comes out etc...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo
if you know how much a part costs nvidia you know the minimum price it will cost you to buy it... its very very unlikely that nvidia sells parts below cost, and if they do, only in very very small volume.
and i agree, if supply of gf100 will be low, the prices will obviously go up and may be even more than 600$...
i have a feeling that nvidia is telling press and analysts that if prices of fermi are too high, that only means its so great and so awesome that everybody wants to buy one, which drives demand up and hence pushes prices up... :D
but i dont think anybody will fall for it... everybody knows that if demand outstrips supply thats actually bad for a manufacturers as it means they could sell even more and make even more money...
idk man... if you think back... a couple of years ago most people wouldnt even know about the mfc process at all, they wouldnt know what 150nm and 130nm mean and what yields are etc... the more time passes, the more general knowledge about the hardware we all love to play with appears in the forums and spreads... i still have hope that one day we get those numbers... i mean after some years its really not sensitive data anymore, and in case somebody still remembers and is nice enough to share it... it might happen! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by BenchZowner
like what does nvidia care if initial g70 yields would appear online now?
it would have no relevance, or well, maybe 10% relevance to GF100 and even less to future products... its only weird people like us who find that stuff interesting :D
and theres a lot we can guess form sales of cards when they reach their end of life...
at that point margins grow slimmer and slimmer so the actual retail price is close to the mfc cost of the card.
and that gives us a good idea of the yields at that time... for example, thats how you can figure out that gt200 never had great yields, even now that 55nm is mature...
260s only sold for 175$ for a short time, which sounds like they barely made profits at that point, and the prices went up to 200-250$ now... and 260s are the worst gt200 chips with 1 or possibly even 2 defects! and if they cant sell for less than 200$, its a big hint that 55nm gt200 yields arent great even now that the process is mature... beyond mature even... eew :S :lol:
G92 on the other hand has been an awesome yield chip at least on 55nm, they are still selling G92 cards in large numbers for 100$ and even less which points towards very very good yields...
that explains why nvidia wanted to shrink G92 even to 40nm, im sure a lot of people at nvidia love g92 :D
and on atis side, rv770 is still selling and for very low prices, pointing towards great yields there as well...
same as rv670, which sold well into the rv770 cycle for very low costs...
Excellent post Saaya, well done! :up:
Between the she said, he said and the who flung dung in this thread, every now and then there are some posts that are truely worth the effort! :rolleyes:
Thanks for that, well written and thought out Saaya. :up::D
thx :D
i just figured out that my huge post can be summed up as "THE FERMI 20/40 RULE" with only a couple of words :lol:
GF100 needs at least 20-40% yields and a 20-40% perf advantage over rv870 to be a success :D
Good summed up, but what do you say to:
GF100 needs at least the same retail-price and a 20-40% perf advantage over rv870 to be a success, no matter what should be the yields or production cost? :D
Lovely big post Saaya and from a technical perspective it's entirely logical.
..but sales are never perfect to performance, sales depend on marketing, public beliefs and the 'deals' offered by stores.
Tl;dr. If nvidia doesn't meet either of your conclusion points, they'll just spin up a new name and none of it will matter.
Apple. That's all I'll say. Apple.
creating an efficient engine will pay off more in the end; Unreal engine has proven this, runs great on low end hardware, can look pretty spliffy on high end hardware.
JC building such an engine for their Tech 5 would increase chances of a commercial success, freeing up funds for future developments.
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Originally Posted by jmke
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Well that's an interesting comparison but your only calculating the effect of chip size. But bigger dies also run hotter so there is also increased cost from components, cooling and possibly also PCB quality.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
"Again"? No, I didn't want to make fun of you! The post was a very good read, thx :)Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
P.S. The trains are stopped in whole NRW because we have a freaking storm here O.O There are many big trees right in front of my flat...
@ jmke: holy :banana::banana::banana::banana: man, don't do it again! :rofl:
yeah i mentioned that somewhere in that huge post :DQuote:
Originally Posted by BrowncoatGR
i think it wont have too much of an impact on the actual cost of the card, i calculated 25$ extra for the GF100 cards vs rv870 cards...
this makes sense especially because most gf100 cards will be 470s which have 1.5gb of memory while competing 5870 and 5850 cards will probably have 2gb, cause 1gb makes them look too whimpy and 2gb is the next step up for them... plus they will be 320bit vs 256bit for rv870 which isnt a huge difference, the added pcb complexity should make them that expensive... an additional pcb layer for a full size atx motherboard is only around 5-10$, which is 3x the size of a vga, so... and a heatsink isnt that expensive either, going from an rv870 to a more powerful heatsink probably costs you a few extra dollars, not that much more... heatpipes costs less than 1$ a piece these days...
hehehe ok then :DQuote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
damn... do you think train traffic from frankfurt to hannover and hannover to hamburg will be blocked or restriced next week? :S
thats true... flexibility and efficiency are very important... i think the main 2 reasons why the u3 engine has been so successful are something else though...Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
1. gears of war - this game still looks awesome today compared to the latest games... this made everybody realize that the engine can be used to create awesome graphics
2. very good dev tools and dev support/relations
of course an engine has to be flexible and efficient, but that alone wont get you attention from anybody, and it wont help you sell your code..
you need a flagship product, an example of what your code can do when pushed to the limit, ie crysis, gears of war, stalker...
doom3 and hl2 failed to impress, and as a result their engines failed to capture market share as well, no matter how efficient or flexible they are...
we will see... they are working on it for a while and what ive seen so far doesnt look all that impressive and revolutionary, it kinda looked like borderland before they went cell...Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
why are you quoting random posts?Quote:
Originally Posted by jmke
i just saw that some shops have a 5970 for 600$
http://www.zipzoomfly.com/jsp/Produc...odlist=froogle
heres the relative price perf list using tha as the reference price:
name - cost - %perf - %price - %/%
HD5970 2gb 600$ 100% 100% 0
GTX295 2gb 525$ 81% 87% +6
HD5870 1gb 400$ 71% 67% -4
HD5850 1gb 325$ 62% 54% -8
GTX285 1gb 375$ 58% 62% +4
GTX260 1gb 225$ 47% 37% -10
HD5830 1gb 250$ 45%*1 42% -3
HD5770 1gb 175$ 43% 29% -14
HD4870 1gb 175$ 44% 29% -15
HD5750 1gb 150$ 37% 25% -12
GTS250 1gb 125$ 36% 21% -15
HD4850 1gb 125$ 35% 21% -14
i wonder how many 295 and 285 cards nvidia and its partners are still selling at those price points...
:clap: Awesome post, earlier, there.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
In the thread I linked to earlier Jawed put up a very good link, to a article
about yields, a couple of posts down. Link
Had a look at the article myself, but I'm pretty sure a need a printout and a
a beer or two before I try to digest it. :toast2:
In his next two posts Jawed uses this article as a way to put numbers on the yields
of Cypress and Fermi. Link1 Link2
The thread circles around yields for a couple of pages here.
Hope this helps :)
/Kej/
sweet! thx man :toast:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kej
I wouldn't waste the money. It's not legit: http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...d.php?t=246290Quote:
Originally Posted by Metroid
Amorphous
I'm thinking very few! the 295 isn't being sold at most online retailers anymore, and the GTX 285 is $50 more than the 5850 but slower... Most reviews put the 5870 above the GTX 295 as well once the 10.1 drivers came out for ATI, so really it's even further ahead in price/performance.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
I like your style saaya, you put a lot of thought into your posts!
The only thing, from a business standpoint, that you seemed to have forgotten is the impact of customer loyalty. My own assumption is that if the nVidia solution is within 10% performance of the AMD solution (meaning nVidia = 90%, AMD = 100%), the broader market will prefer nVidia. For a bit of proof on this assumption, take a look at how popular the 8500GT's, 8600GT's, 9500GT's, and GT220's are in the mass market, when compared to the HD3650's, HD4550's, HD4650's, and HD4670's. The AMD solutions are faster, priced similarly, but much less popular.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Marketing is also powerful stuffQuote:
Originally Posted by Bobsama
Actually, Carmack said that Rage doesn't look that great because the game is designed to run at 60fps, that's the target framerate and the detail level reflects this.
Doom 4 however will be aiming at 30fps on the same (maybe even tweeked) engine, this will show how advanced the engine really is.
Edit: Sorry I should really have looked for a link to back this statement up. http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/53713
Cebit? :D Today it's still a bit chaos at the DB but the storm is gone. No tree hit me :up:Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Doom 3 failed to impress, I agree, but HL2? I think it looked darn good back when I played it with a 9600 Pro. If I remember correctly my jaw dropped :yepp: But it didn't scale up that well.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
The Source-Engine is rather conservative on it's features. Although it makes heavily use of multiple Cores, more than any other engine I've seen (or I didn't notice it that well...). In TF2 I get 150 FPS on 1680x1050 (max details, max AA, AF, Bloom etc) and as soon as I disable multicore rendering it chokes.
The Source-Engine has proven it's worth imho and is used in a variety of games, although it's limited to games developed by Valve iIrc.
Hopefully Episode 3 (or HL3) will be out this year (or early next) and maybe it will use an updated Engine with DX11.
Doom3 didn't fail to impress. Look at the reviews it got, the gameplay wasn't universally praised but the graphics were. It looked great, as did HL2. But they were shadowed by CryEngine 1 which I guess nobody expected.
OK, Doom 3 failed to impress me :) Should've made it more clearly. Doom 3 was nothing but a stupid Iamakillingmachineyoucan'tstopmelookatmyguns game imho. There are better horror-themed games out there (Condemned, FEAR ... ).
Crysis made my jaw drop But HL2 made my heart stop. HL2 is the most technically impressive game to date IMO. 2004 i have to keep telling myself; 6 years ago. Can still play it today and love the way it looks.
Agreed, minus the crysis bit. Throw on a cinematic mod and HL2 is still my favorite game, 6 years later. We need more games like this, and less cookie-cutter shooters.Quote:
Originally Posted by takamishanoku
Geforce GTX 4xx: Fermi graphics card pictured at Cebit
http://www.pcgameshardware.com/aid,7...at-Cebit/News/
http://img.hexus.net/v2/internationa...TS/D0/4801.jpghttp://img.hexus.net/v2/internationa...TS/D0/4802.jpg
http://www.hexus.net/content/item.php?item=22654Quote:
Colorful's box spills more details on NVIDIA GeForce GTX 480 GPU
Whilst navigating through the tech-filled halls at CeBIT 2010, keen to spot NVIDIA's next-generation graphics architecture, we were told that board partners would be wheeling in the high-end GTX 480 card in closed PCs, limiting the press' chances of getting hands-on with the GPU that's due to launch on March 26th.
As the launch draws near, NVIDIA's partners are busy readying retail boxes.
One such partner - and we confess that the name hadn't crossed our radar too many times before - is Colorful.
NVIDIA remains tight-lipped over the card's specifications, but we can confirm from the box that it will have 1,536MB of GDDR5 memory.....
A few things we can take away from that:
- PSU rcommendation is the same a the GTX 285
- One 6-pin and one 8-pin connector
1.5GB of memory means it will have the full allotment of ROPs.
Sounds good,
How high will GTA 4 let you take the details with 1.5GB of memory, 70%?
From Nvidia:
550W and 204W TDP for GTX285 - 6+6 pin
680W and 289W TDP for GTX295 - 6+8 pin
so 600W and 6+8 pin, I can bet for 245-250W TDP for GTX480 - (512SU -1.5Gb GDDR5).
Thanks onethreehill, it's a good start. Next time, more numberz :yepp: :D
Finally, some decent info. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by onethreehill
Who wants 3x5870 from sapphire brand new (almost)? j/k:D
Thanks onethreehill
Well the box sucks in design the original GTX 280 box seems more colorful :)
This is whats written in a GTX 285 official xfx page:
""NVIDIA MINIMUM POWER SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS
* Minimum 550W or greater system power supply (with a 12V current rating of 46A)
XFX RECOMMENDED POWER SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS
* Non-SLI: 630Watt or greater
* SLI: 680Watt or greater""
http://www.xfxforce.com/en-gb/produc.../285GTX.aspx#4
SO the PSU recommendation is not the same a the GTX 285
sometimes :lol:Quote:
Originally Posted by weston
well, i took the prices from newegg because its the most popular shop in the us, by far, and there is no better way to meassure supply vs demand than to look at what people are willing to pay for a product, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobsama
there are always people that are willing to pay more, but i dont think they make up such a big percentage... if they would, then the average sales price on newegg would rise... get what i mean?
newegg prices are a good reference point imo for average demand of a product...
and the reason why the cards you mentioned were so popular was largely affected by oem deals i think... the cards you mentioned are the type of cards oem pick and system builders pick... thats a different animal alltogether... even guessing demand in the oem market is beyond anything you can achieve with google as your only research tool :D
i think nvidia has good relations with oems because they have a very tight grip on their board partners and supply, and can allocate huge amounts of cards if they want to... so if HP wants loooooots of cards, nvidia can basically make the deal and then tell different board partners to each send HP x amount of cards for y price. i think ati hasnt been able to deliver huge orders so well in the past... but im just speculating here...
i dont like the idea of 30fps... and i really dont like all those fps limitations in ut3 and doom3 engines that supposedly make the gameplay more fluid... if it works, cool... but so far i found it very annoying and not very useful...Quote:
Originally Posted by Iconyu
From PCGamesHardware, OTH's link :Quote:
We have also learned that the smaller version of the Geforce GTX 4xx is supposed to cost about 300 to 400 Euros and the top model about 500 to 600 Euros.
http://www.pcgameshardware.com/aid,7...at-Cebit/News/
what??? it just had bump mapping everywhere, that was it... and as soon as you got close to any texture in the game everything turned blurry and some bump maps even turned into pixels soup!Quote:
Originally Posted by annihilat0r
http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/pc/doom3
meta score of reviews 87
meta score of readers 70
and thats a lot, id only give doom3 50 or 60...
i like hl2 a lot more than doom3, but its not really the graphics but more the gameplay that makes it a good game imo... waaay too short and scripted though :/Quote:
Originally Posted by takamishanoku
whos signature is that on the front of the card?Quote:
Originally Posted by onethreehill
and i heard 480cores for the gtx480???
so the 480 will NOT have 512cores???
that would explain the low performance claims compared to 5870... if its the 480 with 480 cores that performs about the same as a 5870, then thats not bad actually... but it also means that nvidia wont really be able to charge more than 450$ for this...
I meant graphically, Doom 3 didn't fail to impress. It looked great.
yeah but what is the top model? the gtx480 with 480 cores or the 480Ultra with 512cores? :D the latter for 500-600 euros makes somewhat sense, but if its a 480core card and the rumors about same perf as 5870 more or less are true, then 500-600euros for that card is ridiculous...Quote:
Originally Posted by Olivon
Where did you read GTX 480 is 480 cores? I looked at all the news today, couldn't see it...
I think this other quote is the answer you want:Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYMTL
+1 whereQuote:
Originally Posted by annihilat0r
lol @ "Intel Pentium 4, AMD Athlon XP class processor or higher" :D "Goddamnit! Crysis runs like crap on my Thoroughbred. I wonder why! I just bought a GTX 480 to play it at full details :("
Sounds like you may have heard wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
Nah, that covers the CPU power needed to run just the drivers. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by FischOderAal
And a PCB with very decent VRMs. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by SKYMTL
Definitely looking good! :up:
From Cebit, some GTX4xx action:
http://www.pcgameshardware.com/aid,7...at-Cebit/News/
"A little surprise was the product sticker, which mentioned a GF-100-375-A3"
"We have also learned that the smaller version of the Geforce GTX 4xx is supposed to cost about 300 to 400 Euros and the top model about 500 to 600 Euros."
And, GTX4xx reference design:
http://www.pctuner.net/info_up/resul...iaGTX390-1.jpg
No outputs ? Seems photoshoped but maybe ... :shrug:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilgamesh
That doesn't mean it will be a 512SP card though. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Piotrsama
Basically, on this architecture the ROPs scale with the number of memory controllers. Meanwhile, the SPs and TMUs scale together.
For those of you who want to predict what these cards may look like in terms of SPs, TMUs, ROPs, etc., I HIGHLY recommend you READ THIS!!
So far, it looks like one of my predictions already came true. ;)
Yeah , but it doesn't mean either that it is not 512 :rolleyes: , if you have any info plz share :DQuote:
Originally Posted by SKYMTL
and anybody noticed this
Coz a kitty told me that they showed a "lowered" clock 380GTX at the FarCry 2 testQuote:
A little surprise was the product sticker, which mentioned a GF-100-375-A3. So the device already reached the third generation, but the product code hasn't been updated to match the recently revealed Geforce GTX 4xx series. Thus the sample is still tagged as a Geforce GTX 375.
Lol man your technical analysis of games always seems to be off base recently. Doom 3 was the first game with full dynamic shadows - a huge deal. HL2's lighting engine was a joke in comparison.Quote:
Originally Posted by saaya
More like full of shadows. :p:Quote:
Originally Posted by trinibwoy
Oh, I was spot on then. Around $650-700 for the top card (not dual GF100).Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilgamesh
Those who thought that GTX470 would cost 250$, GTX480 - $400, and dual GF100 - $500 (ROFL), you guys were waaaaay off as me and many other people told you...
Now, performance! This is something I'd absolutely love to know! :D
Heh, that too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim
Give me a $1000 card as long as there's performance to match.
No you weren't. 500-600 euros in Europe mean 500-600 USD for USA.Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
More Like 550-650$ , you are both wrong :DQuote:
Originally Posted by annihilat0r
this card is not going to cost 700 dollars. I can assure you that. Of course that's excluding the mandatory price gouging due to low availability
These pries are indicating a superior GF100, so stay tuned for some good performance. At least if the price is not faked up and pumped up (either by these guys or nVidia).Quote:
Originally Posted by zalbard
Not really, high end cards never scale price linearly with performanceQuote:
Originally Posted by Sam_oslo