I personally mean you need a shrink to archive a real new generation. Because it's really hard to beat the performance and power of the dual-GPU of the last generator with a single-GPU based on the same 40nm.
Vi discussed this matter widely in
Nvidia confirms the GTX 580 , and I'm not going to repeat it, but the final conclusion/undressing was that you need the architectural-changes who can archive a new level of performance/power to call it a "new generation".
It has been the rule of thumb in the past that, the top single-GPU of a new generation usually beats/matches the double-GPU of last generation in performance and heat/power, with almost same price of the last gen single-GPU. I want to see Cayman doing it, otherwise it will be a "fake" new generation.