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Thread: Could the Playstation 3 Kill Sony?

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    Could the Playstation 3 Kill Sony?

    Could the Playstation 3 Kill Sony? Isn't This Thing Supposed to Play Games First?

    http://www.ehomeupgrade.com/entry/21...he_playstation


    As we quickly approach E3 in May, many people are eagerly anticipating more details on the Sony PS3. Since Sony burst onto the gaming scene with the original Playstation, they have been the company to beat in the console wars. As a matter of fact, while the rest of Sony has struggled, the Playstation division has been a cash cow that the rest of the company has relied on. With Microsoft having already launched the Xbox 360 to overwhelming demand, many are wondering what the counter from Sony will truly look like, hype set aside. It wouldn't be exaggerating to say that Sony is betting a large hand on the Playstation 3. It's not just the Playstation division that's making the bet, either. With the next-gen Hi-Def format war still raging, Sony is betting a substantial portion of it's future on Blu-Ray. While most analysts agree that HD-DVD will not likely win, some analysts are openly wondering whether Blu-Ray will as well. If it doesn't, Sony could be in serious trouble.

    Isn't This Thing Supposed to Play Games First?
    In order for Sony's Trojan Horse strategy with Blu-Ray to work, the Playstation 3 has to succeed as a gaming console. As a game console, the Playstation 3 has to deliver on several fronts. In pure horsepower and graphical ability, there's little doubt that the console will impress. There are serious reservations as to Sony's online strategy (compared to Xbox Live) and we'll cover that in a bit. However, one aspect of gaming that is often ignored, but can become a major issue is load times. Ask any Sony PSP owner what annoys them most about the portable console and you are sure to hear about it's dreadful load times. Gamers are an impatient breed and if Sony frustrates hardcore gamers - and developers, for that matter - it could greatly damage it's reputation with the group that will comprise PS3 early adopters.

    Until now, it's been widely assumed that the Blu-ray drive that will make it's way into the PS3 will be single-speed. If true, this choice could be disasterous. Blu-ray single speed transfers data at a constant rate of 36Mbps (Megabits per second) or 4.5 MBps (Megabytes per second). Sound impressive? Think again. DVD single speed is rated at a little over 1.32MBps max. A 12X DVD, such as the one in the Xbox 360, transfers data at rates between 8.2 and 16.5 MBps for an average of around 13MBps. This article from Gamespot provides all the details on transfer speeds, but simple math should show that there are some serious concerns looming with a single speed Blu-Ray drive. So, all things being equal, a 20 second load-time on the Xbox 360 would equate to just under 60 seconds on the PS3!

    In order for Sony to bring load times into the same range as the Xbox 360, it would have to use at least a 2X drive (which would transfer a little faster than a 12X DVD's minimum speed) or a 3X drive (which would closely resemble a 12X DVD's average transfer rate). Since Blu-ray is a new technology, it's a certainty that the faster speeds will increase the base cost of the PS3, which leads into the next point.

    Money Doesn't Grow on Trees
    The Playstation 3 will lose money for at least a few years. How much and for how long is key, and recent projections from Merrill Lynch Japan suggest that the PS3 could lose a tremendous amount of money for Sony in the first few years. Merrill Lynch is projecting losses of 1.18 billion in year 1, 730 million in year 2 and 457 million in year 3. By comparison, Sony's profits in the past three years has been about 1.86 billion. If the PS3 doesn't start turning a serious profit in year 4, Sony's bank accounts could start drying up. There's no indication if these losses also anticipate the costs involved with setting up the massive infrastructure for an Xbox Live competitor, which most people think Sony will provide. If not, Sony's losses could skyrocket even more as it looks to create a brand-new online presense.

    Sony could try to offset these losses by launching the PS3 with a higher price point, but anything above $500 is considered too high for wide adoption. Will consumers agree with Ken Kutaragi's assessment that you will want to work an extra job to have one? Kutaragi has even lamented that "…the PS3 can't be offered at a price that's targeted towards households."

    Additionally, Sony is stil having to compete with HD-DVD, which is getting significant backing from Microsoft (and their 37 billion in cash). Whereas Microsoft has little to lose if HD-DVD fails, Sony has everything to lose. Additionally, recent announcements at CES in January indicate that the least expensive Blu-Ray drives will start at $1000 while HD-DVD is hitting the market with players starting at $500. Many analysts saw these changes as giving HD-DVD a second-wind that could ultimately hurt Sony more than it helps HD-DVD, which leads to another point.

    Tell Me Why I Need Blu-Ray More Than DVD?
    Unless you have an HDTV set, you'll never see the difference between Blu-Ray and DVD. And considering that Hi-Def adoption is currently at 24% and more than half of consumers are waiting for price drops, the target market for Blu-Ray is not as lucrative as one might believe. When DVDs hit the market, there were several reasons to purchase them. For one, the quality far surpassed VHS. Additionally, menus and extra features made DVD content easier to access and gave it more value. Also, DVDs don't degrade in quality over time, making them a better long-term investment. The jump from DVD to Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD) is not as significant, unless you're an HDTV owner. Even then, the question remains: Is Blu-Ray content going to be compelling enough to make me say "I have to have it?"

    Recent announcements also suggest that Blu-Ray disc prices will come at a significant premium over existing DVD prices. With broadband adoption growing rapidly, one also has to ask if a physical format has a long life ahead of it. Bill Gates has publicly stated that he thinks the format war is the last we'll see, because hi-def content will be soon be delivered over the Internet instead. HD-DVD may not win the war, but it doesn't mean that Blu-ray will.

    Games, Games, Games
    The Playstation 3 has wide support right now. However, rumblings have been surfacing that the PS3 is hard to develop for, due to the complexity of a brand new processor with multiple cores. Similar criticisms arose with the PS2, and while Sony was able to overcome the same hurdles then, there is one major difference now that may keep history from repeating itself: the Xbox 360.

    Since the original Xbox came into the game a good bit later than the PS2, developers had to stick with Sony because it was the clear market leader. This afforded Sony liberties that it may not have had otherwise. Now, Microsoft has the head start. Additionally, the Microsoft unit has already been praised by the likes of John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake, etc...) for it's great development environment, while Hideo Kojima of Metal Gear Solid fame has expressed some concerns that development for the PS3 could be more difficult than for the Xbox 360. Sony must have strong 3rd party support so that licensing fees will help recoup the costs of putting the PS3 into the market. Just being Sony may not be enough anymore.

    Conclusion
    While I don't think we'll see Sony close it's doors for good, I have some concerns about the affect the PS3 could have on Sony's financials over the next few years and into the future. Microsoft has created an impressive console with the Xbox 360 and while Sony has a strong history in the Playstation line, there are key components for concern. Blu-Ray, an online service like Xbox Live and a hard development environment create additional areas for financial loss that may not be recouped. For the sake of competition and a strong market, let's hope Sony can address these concerns adequately and while there is still time.
    Last edited by JAWS; 08-25-2006 at 03:11 PM.


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  2. #2
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    I think Microsoft Xbox has completely taken over the market now with the new 360. I still am a ps2 fan but I don't see any hope for the future.

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    http://www.activewin.com/awin/commen...ineIndex=33697

    The estimated total bill of materials for Sony's next-generation game console will be between $725 and $905....................................WHAT?????? ??


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    The blue ray drive alone is like $300
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    thats what happen when you try to force a propietary format... if they assume the costs for a year they will place a lot of BR players in the market making HD DVD look stupid becasue there are a lot of BR around....


    hope this fails i preffer HD DVD i dont like sony propietary garbage
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    Quote Originally Posted by leviathan18
    thats what happen when you try to force a propietary format... if they assume the costs for a year they will place a lot of BR players in the market making HD DVD look stupid becasue there are a lot of BR around....


    hope this fails i preffer HD DVD i dont like sony propietary garbage
    lucky there's still some form of ingenuity around.....that's just a dumb comment wishing for some company to fall over because you don't like a product....correct me if i'm wrong
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    i dont think so. If you have seen any of the screens for the new games it would amaze you.

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    funny thing about those screenshots going around. i hear a lot of those are pre-rendered and not nessicarily what the ps3 is actually capable of doing real time.
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    Sony started dying when the rootkit fiasco happened. They were going downhill when they started outsourcing. The PS3 may be the killing blow, though.
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    where are these screen shots?

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    From what I have heard the RSX in the PS3 is just a 7800GTX on 90nm
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    I don't think it will kill Sony, Sony is a rather large company.

    However I could definatly see the 360 beating the PS3 this round, I'm not sure the Revo falls into that fight (if we even want to mention it at all) for it seems to have its eternal cult following.

    The PS3 though, costing more than the 360 for what? the few exclusive titles, Blu-Ray and, oh, probably more Sony DRM remember rootkit? I wouldn't put it past Sony to pull something like that with the PS3. I've heard mention of it 'marking' your games so they can only be played on the system of their owner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkangyl
    probably more Sony DRM remember rootkit?


    I've heard mention of it 'marking' your games so they can only be played on the system of their owner.

    that wouldn't surprise me one bit.


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    Quote Originally Posted by mr_knowitall15
    funny thing about those screenshots going around. i hear a lot of those are pre-rendered and not nessicarily what the ps3 is actually capable of doing real time.

    Even funnier is all those demos they had running on the latest dev kits. Even the mgs vid where they had the game running in real time and they were messing around with cameras, lighting, in REAL TIME. If you think the PS3 can bring down SONY, you're dumber than 78% of the world. If you think the 360 will win this gen of gaming, you're wrong as well. They've been out since november and there is still no great game, besides COD2, and even that was out on the PC beforehand. All the other games that were supposed to be great, full auto, perfect dark, DOA, none of them are above average. The only thing I'm waiting for is gears of war. The n64 was supposed to destroy the ps1, the xbox was supposed to destroy the ps2, and that pattern will most likely not change. If it does, oh well. I've been a fan of the PS since 96 and have stuck with it cause their games are more what I like compared to what others offer.

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    the only thing this could kill is sonys console depo

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    Half the people that have an xbox got it to play DOA xtreme beach volleyball. Yet you could still say that PS2 won that time. I remember they even had a special edition package which had an xbox, the game and a blow up character from DOA.
    The only thing that will make one the winner over the other is the range and quality of the games (providing one console isn't largely more expensive than the other), and also the ability to play games from the previous console. If i remember correct the xbox360 cannot play xbox games, whereas sony were planning on making the PS3 capable of playing PS2 games.
    Correct me if i'm wrong, i havn't looked that the specs for a long time.
    Anyways, even if the PS3 eats up all of sony's money, i bet you some rich mainland chinese dude will buy sony. So it's not the last you will hear of sony.

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    I can see it now; Microsoft releases Halo3 the day of PS3


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    Quote Originally Posted by JAWS
    I can see it now; Microsoft releases Halo3 the day of PS3
    thats their plan
    the bad thing is this, theres only like a xbox per 50 square miles with their release, so I think if son gets their shipments right, there gonna own the market at some point, if they were to come out now while microsoft is messing up with this lack of consoles theyd have a good run at it..

    But I think while there gonna be late 06 I dont see them being much competition once people start getting xbox in their homes..
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave_Sz
    Even funnier is all those demos they had running on the latest dev kits. Even the mgs vid where they had the game running in real time and they were messing around with cameras, lighting, in REAL TIME. If you think the PS3 can bring down SONY, you're dumber than 78% of the world. If you think the 360 will win this gen of gaming, you're wrong as well. They've been out since november and there is still no great game, besides COD2, and even that was out on the PC beforehand. All the other games that were supposed to be great, full auto, perfect dark, DOA, none of them are above average. The only thing I'm waiting for is gears of war. The n64 was supposed to destroy the ps1, the xbox was supposed to destroy the ps2, and that pattern will most likely not change. If it does, oh well. I've been a fan of the PS since 96 and have stuck with it cause their games are more what I like compared to what others offer.
    Hum...What console cant you mess around with the cameras and lights? For god sakes you have been able to do that stuff for like ever. Its not some new never before seen technology. Every FPS game has different camera views etc... And how can that be real time when IBM doesnt even know how to program the freaking cell yet!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lead Head
    Hum...What console cant you mess around with the cameras and lights? For god sakes you have been able to do that stuff for like ever. Its not some new never before seen technology. Every FPS game has different camera views etc... And how can that be real time when IBM doesnt even know how to program the freaking cell yet!
    you're missing the point. he's saying that since they were messing around with the camera's and lighting in realtime then obviously the game was in realtime and not a pre-rendered video like most of the stuff going around for launch titles.
    but dave, you youself are missing the point that the manufacturing cost will be great, and sony will be taking a very large hit. they won't die of course but it will hurt then initially. however hardware wise the ps3 is going to be amazing (in particual the cell's architecture). in my opinion the xbox 360 is already behind graphics wise (compares the xbox 360's best looking game to a game like fear).
    we'll just have to wait and see how things go.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dinos22
    lucky there's still some form of ingenuity around.....that's just a dumb comment wishing for some company to fall over because you don't like a product....correct me if i'm wrong
    i dont like they always try to force some propietary format
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarrod1937
    you're missing the point. he's saying that since they were messing around with the camera's and lighting in realtime then obviously the game was in realtime and not a pre-rendered video like most of the stuff going around for launch titles.
    but dave, you youself are missing the point that the manufacturing cost will be great, and sony will be taking a very large hit. they won't die of course but it will hurt then initially. however hardware wise the ps3 is going to be amazing (in particual the cell's architecture). in my opinion the xbox 360 is already behind graphics wise (compares the xbox 360's best looking game to a game like fear).
    we'll just have to wait and see how things go.
    You can't compare them at all. Different architecture,plus the xbox is bearly even 5 months old. Have you seen Far Cry instincts it beats the living out of FEAR
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    please lead head, don't try to start the stupid arguement that consoles are better than pc's...
    as for the new far cry for the xbox 360.... why don't you wait to see what some of the pc screenshots will look like, i bet you $1,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000 that the pc version will look better. and yes you can compare thier power even though they have diffeent architectures, why not? its not like they are processing some foriegn code or are based on a completly different design type (like optical processing verses semi-conductor processing). and because they share these similarities you do have a basis for comparing, so again, why not?
    on top of this, the new far cry screenshots are probably from a pc anyway running off of a xbox 360 dev kit. now, if a pc can run the game at the max settings that the xbox 360 is going to be running it at while also emulating some of the xbox 360's more unique features don't you think the pc version of that same game will run better and faster than the xbox 360 counterpart and therfore be able to push more graphic wonderfulness? i think so, on top of that the xbox 360's games don't look nearly as good as some of the pc games out now, sure the xbox 360 has only been out for 5 months... why does this matter? the gpu is still based off of the standard current pc gpu architecture, and so just like the xbox they are almost already using the gpu to its fullest extent. its not like the ps2's gpu which was completly unique in its architecture therefore requiring more experience to gain more graphics. basically the xbox 360's hardware will become outdated pretty fast. however since the xbox 360 platform is all based on the same hardware (it never changes) then you can expect them to be able to push more graphics than on a pc because of extra optimization that is possible, but this can't compete with upgraded hardware.
    Last edited by Jarrod1937; 02-28-2006 at 04:45 AM.

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    xbox360 will look good trough year with an initial inversion of 400$

    if you want a game to look equal with pc you have to spend a lot more
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    Quote Originally Posted by leviathan18
    xbox360 will look good trough year with an initial inversion of 400$

    if you want a game to look equal with pc you have to spend a lot more
    not really.

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