Will DRAM prices go down in 2019? The chatter indicates it, recent capacity ramps by Micron Technology and the planned kick-off of commercial production by China-based Fujian Jin Hua Integrated Circuit and Innotron Memory (previously known as Hefei ChangXin) could lead to oversupply for the memory in 2019.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would be forced to overhaul their current profit-oriented business strategy as both firms believe that the booming memory market, which has continued for 2-3 years, is likely to be over by the end of 2018, according to a Korea-based Digital Times report:
Although Samsung and SK Hynix both stated, at their latest investors conferences, respectively, that they will continue to ramp up capacities for memory chips, the aggressive moves by rival companies have made the two companies hesitate, said the report. Samsung has seen its share in the DRAM market continue to dive after hitting a high of 50.2% in the third quarter of 2016 as rivals including Micron have jacked up their revenues and profits. Notably, Micron has ramped up its operating margin to as high as 50% so far in 2018 compared to 20% at the end of 2016. Additionally, Samsung saw its share in the market drop to 44.4% in the first quarter of 2018, while Micron managed to ramp up its share to 23.1%, according to IHS Markit.
The global DRAM market is expected to reach a peak of US$104 billion in 2018, before contracting by 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2019 and 2020, according to an industry estimate. Meanwhile, automotive applications will gradually replace the smartphone sector to become the largest market for memory chips. Meanwhile, Micron is gearing up to expand production of 10nm-class DRAM chips at its Taiwan-based fabs between 2018 and 2019.
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