[News] 4Q DRAM Sales Put Exclamation Point On An Amazing Year of Growth

[StyM]

https://www.techpowerup.com/239880/4...year-of-growth

Throughout 2017, DRAM manufacturers faced pressure to boost output of their devices-particularly high-performance DRAM used in data center servers, and low-power high-density DRAM used in smartphones and other mobile products. Strong, ongoing demand put significant upward pressure on DRAM average selling prices. This trend continued into 4Q17 and is expected to drive quarterly DRAM sales to an all time high mark of $21.1 billion (Figure 1), capping an incredible year of growth in which DRAM sales set a new all time high sales mark each quarter. The forecast $21.1 billion sales level in 4Q17 would be an increase of 65% compared to the $12.8 billion DRAM market of 4Q16.

Annual DRAM market growth of 74% is forecast for 2017, which would be the highest growth rate since the 78% increase in 1994-23 years ago-and 61 points more than the 13% average DRAM market growth rate from 1993-2017 (Figure 2). The expected 74% DRAM market growth in 2017 will mark the fourth time since 1993 that the DRAM market has increased by more than 50%. This near-historic high market spike in 2017 was brought on by several factors, including constrained supply attributed to a lack of major fab expansion plans, yield difficulties with leading-edge (≤20nm) processes, demand for high performance (graphics) DRAM from gaming systems and data center-based server applications, and increased average content for mobile DRAM used in smartphones.

[drmrlordx]

And of course, the major DRAM manufacturers have no plans to increase output enough to match those growth figures.

[Levish]

why make less money when you can make more?

[drmrlordx]

It just shows that there's no room for competition. In a demand-driven market, the lion's share of the spoils goes to whichever manufacturer can produce more to fill demand gaps. Sales go up, and prices remain relatively stable. You earn more by producing more.

Unfortunately, DRAM manufacture is very difficult. Toshiba is out of the market since they sold their fab(s) to Micron. And Micron is producing e. Other players are not entering the field at this time.

So that leaves Hynix and Samsung. That's it! So long as they agree to keep production down, prices can continue to rise.

Theoretically, once prices reach a critical point, it should be lucrative enough for an investor group to build fabs, hire talent, and take a whack at competing in the DRAM market. We'll see if that theory ever bears out.

[Sparky]

What's wrong with Micron? I haven't kept up with everything. Is it actual, real problems, or is it just they don't make fancy stuff the overclockers like? (Because that doesn't mean squat in the grand scheme of things.)

I've used Crucial memory in several misc PC builds over the last couple years and haven't had any issues with it not functioning properly. Nothing special, no, but it works OK for its intended purpose.

[drmrlordx]

I'm not sure where Micron ICs are winding up, but I don't think you see them in any new DIMMs at the moment. Like, anywhere.

[Sparky]

I just assumed that Crucial memory used Micron ICs since that's been their default for the majority of their memory, given they are a subsidiary of Micron.

[drmrlordx]

Crucial might still be releasing new products, not sure. Without samples on hand and/or Thaiphoon Burner data dumps I can't say for sure.

A cursory glance shows this availability for Crucial DIMMs:

https://pcpartpicker.com/products/me...=-speed&page=1

From an "enthusiast" perspective, meh. They can't even offer a basic DDR4-3200 product. Otherwise I don't know how long those products have been on the market, nor do I know anything about their depth of supply. It's possible they're still cranking out D9. From the clockspeeds, that may well be the case. The prices are absurd regardless. Micron just snagged Toshiba's DRAM fab, so if they really wanted to flood the market with low-binned DRAM to exploit the price climate, they probably have the means. They just aren't doing it.

$194 for 16 GB of DDR4-2666 CL16? Okay.