AMD to launch Volcanic Islands GPU (HD8000s) in 2013

[hurleybird]

So either one of AMD's premier product managers and pretty much their entire international product team told us the wrong info (which I highly doubt) or there's some viral marketing going on in an effort to blunt NVIDIA's upcoming launches.

Take your pick but I'm certainly not going to hold off on any purchases based on a rumor that runs contrary to everything AMD has been saying for the past five months.

Or they changed their plans. Or perhaps both are correct and there's going to be a paper launch near the end of the year similar to how Tahiti launched.

I certainly wouldn't call the Rage3D thing a rumor. If Jim Keller and Chekib Akrout told you that AMD was going to do something and you wrote it up, but other tech editors were skeptical and called your piece a "rumor" I'm sure you'd get yourself into quite the tizzy.

It's distantly possible someone misheard something, but when two pieces of authoritative but seemingly contradictory information appear to contradict one another in this field, the safe bet is to go with the most recent one. In this case, for me at least, at evens out as the older piece information does seem more wide spread, well known, and authoritative. That being said, it's entirely possible AMD's early 20nm parts came back from TSMC a lot better than expected and the schedule was moved up. Hell, you have contacts with AMD -- why don't you just ask them and figure it out for all of us one way or the other?

[Evantaur]

why don't you just ask them and figure it out for all of us one way or the other?

he could do that, but even if they told him, don't you think that information wouldn't be under NDA? wouldn't make us any smarter

[hurleybird]

It wasn't under NDA when they supposedly told Rage3D

[LordEC911]

Nowhere they said GTX 690 sold poorly. Titan just sold much better than they expected.

You seem to be coming with your opinions as facts a lot recently. You should cut the BS. It's getting old.

Yep, I agree, I worded that poorly. I meant GTX690 sold poorly compared to Titan.
As far as that second part, that is your opinion. While I do have a slight bias, I don't post BS.

That is patently false. The GTX 690 exceeded the expectations of retailers, board partners and NVIDIA alike. So much so that they produced a second run months later and the cards you see in stock now are from a third, more limited run.

So a, artificially, limited Titan availability outselling a product that has been on the market for a year in less than 3 months somehow equates to both of them selling like hotcakes?
Gotcha... BTW- Have you seen the numbers for Titan units shipped to AIBs?

You do not understand the fan and/or viral marketing world very well Sky.

If you're an AMD fan or viral marketeer, NVIDIA says,"We are shocked at how many people paid $1000 for 690s, but we're even more shocked a lot more people paid $1000 for Titans! Thank you for giving us record margins all you people with $1000 in your pockets!" but all you see is "690s sold very badly. Titans are doing a little better, but can't really be expected to succeed due to the lower performance.".

You have no room to talk about viral marketeers. You are a shill through and through.

Lordecc always takes the most negative view on Nvidia. It isn't a surprise.

Gtx 690 had to sell reasonable well for Nvidia to even consider the 1000 dollar price point for the gtx titan. Also, the gtx 690 never had a price drop which typically happen after sales are bad, e.g like the whole 7xxx series after the gtx 6xx series came out(this is to just rub it in lordecc face a bit).

Most negative? Nope.
FYI- You don't drop prices on your halo dual GPU cards with extremely limited volume even if they are selling poorly.

The issue here is that AMD publicly said they won't have anything to replace their high end cards this year. To me, that holds more truth than rumors.

As it stands now, NVIDIA is essentially AT LEAST a half generation ahead of AMD. AMD needed a refresh which is something that should have happened five months ago. Instead, they will suddenly find themselves competing against refreshed NVIDIA cards that will walk all over them, necessitating price cuts.

To make matters worse, if AMD can't achieve at least a 75% performance increase over Tahiti XT with the next generation, NVIDIA won't even need Maxwell. They'll just reduce the price of TITAN, release a fully enabled GK110 and wait until Maxwell is fully baked.

And let's not forget AMD's track record on launches. We have constantly seen them release a card to reviewers only to make it available weeks or sometimes even months later. So Q4 2013? In the world of AMD launches, that means absolutely, positively nothing.

The fact that you can't read through the lines or listen to the massive amount of hints out there, even back in February, doesn't mean all of us are the same way.
Remember kids, Nvidia decided to rehash GK100 for fun and decided to hold onto GK110 even though they could have released it back in 1H '12.... Give it a rest.
Paper launches? You might want to harp on Nvidia a little.

Of course I have but I put about zero credibility behind rumors.

Instead, I refer you to this official AMD slide:



If you want a transcript of their Q&A session with analysts, I can provide that as well. But here is a direct passage:

Brandon (press): Are you saying that the HD 7970 gigahertz edition will be your flagship single gpu card for the rest of 2013?

Devon Nekechuk (AMD): Yes, that is exactly what we are saying. While other cards will be rolled out throughout the year to fill out some segments, the ghz edition will remain in a top tier spot for the remainder of the year.
----------------

I can provide links to plenty of sites from TR to Anandtech to Tom's which received the exact same info.

So either one of AMD's premier product managers and pretty much their entire international product team told us the wrong info (which I highly doubt) or there's some viral marketing going on in an effort to blunt NVIDIA's upcoming launches.

Take your pick but I'm certainly not going to hold off on any purchases based on a rumor that runs contrary to everything AMD has been saying for the past five months.

To me, this smells of the same BS that went down when people and several sites hilariously assumed the "Solar System" parts were AMD's next gen desktop parts. Oh how the rumors flew then.

Again though; I say this in relation to high end SKUs. It's completely possible that AMD will have a lower end 20nm pipe-cleaning product in 2013 followed by a broader rollout in 2014.

Official AMD slide and Q/A session that you completely misinterpreted...
We have already gone through this if you want to keep playing dumb and ignorant, well so be it, but it sounds more like you shilling for Nvidia.

Great spin. So basically Fermi wasn't late it was a half generation ahead?

Also, GK110 wasn't late but launched early.

[SKYMTL]

Or they changed their plans. Or perhaps both are correct and there's going to be a paper launch near the end of the year similar to how Tahiti launched.

I certainly wouldn't call the Rage3D thing a rumor. If Jim Keller and Chekib Akrout told you that AMD was going to do something and you wrote it up, but other tech editors were skeptical and called your piece a "rumor" I'm sure you'd get yourself into quite the tizzy.

It's distantly possible someone misheard something, but when two pieces of authoritative but seemingly contradictory information appear to contradict one another in this field, the safe bet is to go with the most recent one. In this case, for me at least, at evens out as the older piece information does seem more wide spread, well known, and authoritative. That being said, it's entirely possible AMD's early 20nm parts came back from TSMC a lot better than expected and the schedule was moved up. Hell, you have contacts with AMD -- why don't you just ask them and figure it out for all of us one way or the other?

What I am saying is that until something concrete is launched or announced, everything leading up to that point is a rumor. As you say, plans change, people misinterpret information, etc.

As for the asking part, the questions were asked during my last discussions with the powers that be and they directly contradict what's been stated in this thread.

As usual, I am not calling shens here. I am advising caution before too many become overly optimistic.....but that never seems to go down very well.

[SKYMTL]

Official AMD slide and Q/A session that you completely misinterpreted...
We have already gone through this if you want to keep playing dumb and ignorant, well so be it, but it sounds more like you shilling for Nvidia.

I think not. The slide and Q/A were completely transparent, which was a breath of fresh air in this industry and AMD deserved kudos for that. Nothing could have been misinterpreted since they pretty much spelled out their intentions in black and white.

But then again, there will always be people who will deny and deny until their keyboards wear out.

[Rollo]

LordEC911: I have no ties to NVIDIA whatsoever.

I do; however, now have a Titan in my main rig because a. the 7970 CF I had there recently lived up to it's driver rep b. AMD told me they have no 8970 for me till next year.

So, until 8970 does launch next year (when I will buy it) the 7970 GHz stays in my secondary rig and the Titan in my primary. Which is pretty much giving AMD equal billing in my house because even my secondary rig is a 2500K/7970GHz/Dell 3007 WFP-HC and gets a lot of use.

Being annoyed I had no choice on the Titan, and couldn't use the 7970 CFx I paid good cash for does not equal "shilling for NVIDIA". AMD needs to step up to the table and let us all down with lack of refresh.

[hurleybird]

As for the asking part, the questions were asked during my last discussions with the powers that be and they directly contradict what's been stated in this thread.

Just to confirm, was that before or after the Rage3D interview went up?

[Rollo]

Just to confirm, was that before or after the Rage3D interview went up?

Really, is there any difference?

"This year" could mean December 20th is targeted launch date for the first 1000 cards. It could mean December 2013 is the targeted paper launch date, like December 2011 was for the 7970.

How many people in the market for a card now are going to wait and unknown length of time, for an unknown product, at an unknown price?.

What if the 8970 Hawaii chip performs like a Titan, and AMD launches it in December at $1000? We saw them do just that with the year late 7990 last month, "it's comparable to a year old 690, so $1000!".

All we have for Hawaii is conflicting info given to the press, and fairly good reason to believe it isn't launching anytime soon. (I don't believe there are any 20nm chips from TSMC on the market, let alone high end chips)

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/d...ap_Report.html

In case all goes well, then TSMC will be able to manufacture 20nm chips in commercial volumes starting late this year.

No matter what AMD says, Hawaii depends on what TSMC can do. Which brings us back to what I've said all along: "AMD should have planned a refresh of 7970 this year, or at very least a card with an assembled water loop, because buyers like me have no choice but to buy NVIDIA now."

I buy new cards every year. "We 're not going to launch in 2013! We'll launch in 2013!" doesn't cut it.

[Piledriver]

Also, GK110 wasn't late but launched early.

Fermi cutdown version came after, Kepler cutdown version came before. That's it. If we are going to say that Nvidia is half generation ahead after releasing full kepler, than they were half generation ahead when they released full fermi

[DefStar]

You went ahead and bought one Rollo, I thought you were protesting the $1K single gpu card... You know it's not worth that much. You could have got better performance with two 680s or the 690.

[Rollo]

You went ahead and bought one Rollo, I thought you were protesting the $1K single gpu card... You know it's not worth that much. You could have got better performance with two 680s or the 690.

The protest failed. When they sell all the can make for months straight and every forum I visit has people talking about their Titans, it became clear to me my protest was pretty much a lone gesture in the high end market.

Whether they're "worth it" is an interesting topic for another thread.

I will say this:
Playing Bioshock Infinite last night with the Titan was a MUCH better experience than it was on my 680 SLi. The animation seemed more natural and fluid on the same settings I'd used with the 680 SLi. (25 X 16 FXAA 16X AF High Quality Adaptive Vsynch) It was easier to kill opponents, and in general everything just seemed more natural.

680 SLi >>>> 7970 CFx. But, one Titan > 680 SLi based on my limited experience last night with it.

Part of the problem may be that the computer I used them both on has a Dell 3008 panel, and the scaler introduces lag. I bought the Titan to see if taking all multi GPU frame delivery issues out of the equation would help, and it seems to have done so.

I don't remember noticing any lag on my 120Hz TN panels that I've mainly been using the last 3-4 years, so it could be "for me and other users with monitors containing scalers" the Titan is worth $1000..

I suppose I could have just switched the scaler-less 3007WFP-HC upstairs and used the 3008 with my 7970, but it wouldn't have given me a chance to buy a new video card.

And finally, on topic, if AMD would have launched Hawaii at even rumored GTX780 levels of performance for $700 each prior to this, I would have bought it. (just to protest the $1K price on Titans) By not making it to market, AMD lost this sale.

[Lanek]

You arrive to pond a requisitory of why you have buy Titan with 11 lines after his 1 line questionnement.... are you crazy ?

if i read the posts of thosess last 6 months , you have buy 2x 680 --- 2x 7970 ( maybe 3 ) , maybe a 690 ( i dont remember ), one Titan .. Personally, you are on the part of peoples like me, overclocking or want get the access for overclocking, but you never show us your results .. no air results ? no H2o ? .. no Dice ? , No LN2 setups we can see what you have do with them ? no scres ? no screenshoots ... it was aMSI Lightning 680 x2 or 2x Evga FTW ? ..with a good surround 3D monitor setup ? Eyefinity tests ? ... overclocking results ? stocks results = everyone who buy so much hardware put some results somewhere no ? you are capable of put a 40 lines post for explain during nearly 8 months why the Nvidia 600 series are so good, why you like so much Nvidia cards, then buy 2x 7970, then sale them and so certainly have sold your GTX 680 series , so sold the 7970's cause review of framerates are bad ( i remember you was speak of 3 maybe, but im maybe wrong... then buy a titan... M8, i want marry your wife ..

What next, you have sold the Titan for 1x 780 .. cause the value is better ? .. maybe one 770, cause it is so much more of a FTW 680 with 1176mhz base clock..

its not an agression, but i start really to ask me if you understand, most peoples here have the setup at home they want, and we use the cards brand give us for do our own work with them ..

If you see my sig... this is the same of when the 7970 is out.. i still wait the GK ...

[Rollo]

You arrive to pond a requisitory of why you have buy Titan with 11 lines after his 1 line questionnement.... are you crazy ?

if i read the posts of thoes last 6 months , you have buy 2x 680 --- 2x 7970 ( maybe 3 ) , maybe a 690 ( i dont remember ), one Titan .. Personally, you are on the part of peoples like me, overclocking or want get the access for overclocking, but you never show us your results .. no H2o ? .. no Dice ? , No LN2 setups we can see what you have do with them ? no socres ? no screenshoots ... what it was MSI Lightning 680 x2 witha good surround 3D monitor setup ? Eyefinity tests ? ... overclocking results ? stocks results = everyone who buy so much hardware put some results somewhere no ? you are capable of put a 40 lines post for explain during nearly 8 months why the Nvidia 600 series are so good, why you like so much Nvidia cards, then buy 2x 7970, then sale them and so certainly have sold your GTX 680 series , so sold the 7970's cause review of framerates are bad ( i remember you was speak of 3 ( but my memory can be bad, then buy a titan... M8, i want marry your wife ..

( hey honey, one article is bad about the card i have, i need change.. > 4 months ago, they said my new card is bad, can i change ? > 3 months ago, you see i should have buy this new cards x 2..> ooh sorry, look this article, this is bad --- ))

LOL

I don't do overclocking experiments, just like to try new video cards. You should have seen how many I went through back in the "dual income no kids" days when there were lots of choices.

We're fortunate in that we both have professional jobs so we have some disposable income that I mainly waste on computer parts and fishing trips.

[Lanek]

LOL

I don't do overclocking experiments, just like to try new video cards. You should have seen how many I went through back in the "dual income no kids" days when there were lots of choices.

We're fortunate in that we both have professional jobs so we have some disposable income that I mainly waste on computer parts and fishing trips.

Too short response this time, you just respond to the 2 first lines ..

No high end system ?... no H20 .. LN2, Dice ? .. .... what about talking about, real gpu, hardware, cpu, architecure knowledge ? try go on real professional gpu discussion forum ( architecture, programming, software etc ? ).

[LordEC911]

I think not. The slide and Q/A were completely transparent, which was a breath of fresh air in this industry and AMD deserved kudos for that. Nothing could have been misinterpreted since they pretty much spelled out their intentions in black and white.

But then again, there will always be people who will deny and deny until their keyboards wear out.

So you have no insight on how guarded they chose to answer?
FYI- I had a transcript sent to me on or shortly after birthday... so no I don't need one.

[qcmadness]

A roadmap is a plan for proposed future product, and a roadmap can be changed.

[Rollo]

A roadmap is a plan for proposed future product, and a roadmap can be changed.

True, but if the chip you're designing depends on a new process node, you're at the mercy of the fab's ability to produce your part.

http://news.techeye.net/chips/tsmc-r...tes-450mm-push

Although some optimists were hoping to see 20nm parts from TSMC by the end of this year, CEO Morris Chang said the company will start volume production of 20nm products in 2014, reports Digitimes.

That is the CEO of TSMC saying they won't be making 20nm parts until next, from an article 12 days ago. AMD can say whatever they want to try to get people to wait for their parts, but TSMC makes their parts.

[Rollo]

Too short response this time, you just respond to the 2 first lines ..

No high end system ?... no H20 .. LN2, Dice ? .. .... what about talking about, real gpu, hardware, cpu, architecure knowledge ? try go on real professional gpu discussion forum ( architecture, programming, software etc ? ).

Sorry, didn't want to go off topic talking about myself. I'll PM you the answers.

[Olivon]

Fermi cutdown version came after, Kepler cutdown version came before. That's it. If we are going to say that Nvidia is half generation ahead after releasing full kepler, than they were half generation ahead when they released full fermi

Where are AMD big chips ? Nowhere ...

[SKYMTL]

So you have no insight on how guarded they chose to answer?
FYI- I had a transcript sent to me on or shortly after birthday... so no I don't need one.

Guarded? That conference call and subsequent conversations were some of the most open on-record experiences I've ever had with a rep from AMD, NVIDIA, Intel, etc.

And no, timelines weren't given other than the "nothing new in the high end market in 2013" discussion but that was to be expected.

[Dimitriman]

Guarded? That conference call and subsequent conversations were some of the most open on-record experiences I've ever had with a rep from AMD, NVIDIA, Intel, etc.

And no, timelines weren't given other than the "nothing new in the high end market in 2013" discussion but that was to be expected.

Relax man... Those answers were given a long time ago, way before Titan and the 780 family were ever announced. There is nothing like competition to make a company change its plans.

Just cause AMD said they would not release anything new months ago, doesn't mean they will stick to that plan no matter what...

[Zloyd]

I think ATI didnt expect Nvidia to have next gen out so soon, they thought they had atleast another 6 months prolly.

Now they dont have a choice its all hands on deck and they will have something competitive out come November December. Late but good chance 7xx supply wont be the best till septemberish .... so its damage control , its not ideal but I hardly think this is the first time someone gets a 6 month jump on the other.

[SKYMTL]

Relax man... Those answers were given a long time ago, way before Titan and the 780 family were ever announced. There is nothing like competition to make a company change its plans.

Just cause AMD said they would not release anything new months ago, doesn't mean they will stick to that plan no matter what...

Plans can be changed. They can't be changed on a dime. Silicon engineering and planning takes years and no small amount of crystal ball gazing.

AMD knew very well that NVIDIA would eventually launch their new round of Kepler cards and chose not to have a refresh of their own. Their resources were directed towards the next gen. Many analysts (Jon Peddy, WSJ, etc.) have surmised this direction will allow them to have a volume launch in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2014 instead of a Q3 soft launch.

However, the major tipping point in the equation will be the maturity of TSMC's 20nm manufacturing process. Since GF is still a year or more away from fully developing their own answer to TSMC's 20nm planar HKMG process, AMD is tied at the hip to TSMC's ramping schedule. That means volume production in Q1 2014. Naturally, 28nm is still a possibility if AMD wanted an accelerated timeline but we have already seen the disastrous results of what happens when an architecture is planned on a more efficient process and then ported to a less efficient one.

It may very well be that AMD always planned their next generation cards to use the 28nm process, thereby ensuring good yields but we'll just have to wait and see if that's the case.

Let's break this down then:

20nm; If TSMC sticks to their schedule, there's no way a new high end AMD card will be available in volume this year.

28nm; There is a remote possibility of seeing a launch in 2013, thereby proving previous AMD statements false.

It should be an interesting six months!

[Rollo]

I think ATI didnt expect Nvidia to have next gen out so soon, they thought they had atleast another 6 months prolly.

Now they dont have a choice its all hands on deck and they will have something competitive out come November December. Late but good chance 7xx supply wont be the best till septemberish .... so its damage control , its not ideal but I hardly think this is the first time someone gets a 6 month jump on the other.

Did you happen to see my post above where I link the CEO of TSMC saying there won't be 20nm this year? 12 days ago?

What AMD does is irrelevant at this point, unless they plan on making Hawaii a 28nm part. My guess is Hawaii was designed to be 20nm, and would require some re-engineering to do on the larger process. (but I'm not en engineer) Would seem to me there would be power and speed sacrifices to that and that all important first impression of their new arch might be tarnished by such a move.