Originally Posted by
JF-AMD
I am no expert in the client space.
So, I actually went to do a little research for everyone in order to become more of an expert in the client space. The discussion would be better served with facts over feelings. It was actually worse than I was portraying it.
Xeon, as a desktop brand, represented ~1.3% of the overall client market in 2007. Today, Xeon as a brand, represents ~.3%, less than 1%, (and probably far less than people have been giving it credit.) That means the market for 2P desktops is merely a quarter of what it once was just 2.5 years ago. A rapidly shrinking market is not one to invest in, you want to invest in a growing market.
Now, what is so different about 2007 and today? In 2007, dual cores ruled the market. There were a lot of people that wanted 4 threads, and now they get that in a single chip. As you hit thread saturation in a single socket, there is less demand for that second chip. And, as we are at 6 today, and 8 next year, the need for that second socket, as a market aggregate, is continuing to shrink.
I also did the quick math on what it would take to bring a dual socket part to market, assuming that you take the exact same server design, call it anything else and sell it. You would need to sell about 2X what the current xeon sales desktop sales are (according to IDC) in order to make that a profitable product. That assumes $0 in advertising by the way, adding advertising on the top only makes the situation worse.
Heap on the fact that to bring the product to market you are probably assuming ~6-12 months to hit the market window from a productization standpoint, adding a new 2P platform would mean that your launch slot would be in 2011, which is right on top of Bulldozer. If the market continues to shrink (because of thread saturation), then the 8 cores of Bulldozer will accelerate that trend.
So I would need to be at 2X the market in sales, but the market is shrinking fast, and will probably accelerate that trend when we get more cores.
I am not trying to say that people aren't justified in wanting this product, just that there is no way to make the numbers work. I agree that for some it would be a very cool thing to have; I just wish people wouldn't say that it is so easy to do or that there is a huge market waiting to be tapped. Neither of those statements are true. If you had access to cost models and market share data all of this would be crystal clear. Unfortunately I can't share that, but I believe I have already shared a lot to hopefully show this in a different light.
Bookmarks