Nvidia GT300 yields are under 2%

[Shadov]

THE SAGA of Nvidia's GT300 chip is a sad one that just took a turn for the painful when we heard about first silicon yields. Nvidia's execution has gone from bad to absent with low single digit yields.

A few weeks ago, we said that Nvidia was expecting first silicon back at the end of the week, the exact date was supposed to be Friday the 4th plus or minus a bit. The first bit of external evidence we saw that it happened was on the Northwood blog (translated here) and it was a day early, so props to NV for that. That lined up exactly with what we are told, but the number of good parts was off.

How many worked out of the (4 x 104) 416 candidates? Try 7. Yes, Northwood was hopelessly optimistic - Nvidia got only 7 chips back. Let me repeat that, out of 416 tries, it got 7 'good' chips back from the fab. Oh how it must yearn for the low estimate of 20%, talk about botched execution. To save you from having to find a calculator, that is (7 / 416 = .01682), rounded up, 1.7% yield.

The whole text can be found here: http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/09/...eilds-under-2/ by Charlie Demerjian

Comments?

[ajaidev]

Are you kidding me!!!!! Holy Shooot this is bad if true, ATi will ask top dollors for its card and without any thing to compete "In stock anyways" with it may get what it wants.

I just hope Nvidia sticks in there makes the chips at a lose and get the count up and for the love of god not start on a re-branding rampage.

[turtletrax]

Daaaayyyumm

If true, that is horrific. Boggles the mind to see how fast the tables can turn in this game.

[MirageSys]

I think if its true it takes the record. That's just pitiful.

[Helloworld_98]

If this is true now we know why Nvidia's CEO sold all that stock

their stock prices are going to drop a bit

[Andrew LB]

If this is true now we know why Nvidia's CEO sold all that stock

their stock prices are going to drop a bit

I highly doubt this story holds water. Why?

Well... if nVidia's CEO sold off a bunch of stock just prior to this news story going public, with the fear that the price may crash... it would be one of the most clear cut cases of insider trading I've ever seen and he'd be thrown in jail.


After taking a quick peek at nVidia's stock price a moment ago, I'd conclude that he sold the stocks because NVDA is up 60% in the past 2 months and we are only two weeks away from September, which we all know is notorious for market crashes.

If I still owned AMD (i bought it for $9.00 in May of 1999 and sold it in April of 2000 @ $45.00 + a split), I would be doing the exact same thing considering it's stock is up roughly 60% since July, and now is definitely the time to move those profits into a less volatile market.

[Russian]

If this is true now we know why Nvidia's CEO sold all that stock

their stock prices are going to drop a bit

He had to file for that sale 6 months prior to the sale.... in order to avoid insider trading. Sooo the timing is actually completely BS.

As for the actual story. LOOK AT THE SOURCE. His mission in life is to destroy Nvidia.

I also refuse to click the link i dont want to give him money.

[STaRGaZeR]

I also refuse to click the link i dont want to give him money.

Haha, that's funny comming from you. Exactly like we do when we see one of those BSN articles of yours

[Russian]

Haha, that's funny comming from you. Exactly like we do when we see one of those BSN articles of yours

Thats funny because i stopped posting those a long time ago.
Plus there isnt nearly that kind of bias...

[Unoid]

Anyone feeling risky? They've been trending up for months, Perhaps in the next few days the price will fall 5-10%

Anyone care to short some nvda stock with me?

[Mk]

That's why Nv stock was sold big time by Nv CEO looks like its the Red team year unless Intel have a say....

[SKYMTL]

If true: ouch.

Consider the source though.

[Newblar]

Consider the source though.

semiaccurate.com .. semi accurate?

[FischOderAal]

Well, if (a huge one) this is true NVIDIA might be in huge trouble. I really hope this is not the case.

[Xope_Poquar]

Looks like the 5870 will stay at $400 for a long time.

[hlopek]

Looks like the 5870 will stay at $400 for a long time.

otoh .... they could make it cheaper cause in some parts of the world there are no rebates and gpus stay overpriced even when price steadily decline. even when they're phased out

hd5850 $249 and hd5870(basic 1gb) $299 would be fair even for predatory manufacturers. and this way with even overpriced junipers $199 they simply rip us off.

[Smartidiot89]

otoh .... they could make it cheaper cause in some parts of the world there are no rebates and gpus stay overpriced even when price steadily decline. even when they're phased out

hd5850 $249 and hd5870(basic 1gb) $299 would be fair even for predatory manufacturers. and this way with even overpriced junipers $199 they simply rip us off.

But then comes the obvious WHY? Why should someone lower the prices when the competition obviously aren't there.

Don't worry prices will go down when GT300 is here, but AMD ain't doing charity work.

[hlopek]

But then comes the obvious WHY? Why should someone lower the prices when the competition obviously aren't there.

Charity, charity everybody fronts out that shield (Does anybody knows what charity means these days) It's not charity just a common sense about ATi's MSRP. Stores could easily raise that prices if demand overcame supply. So it would be some common sense for ATi. But hell with reason when there's enough unreasonable buyers

[Machinus]

But then comes the obvious WHY? Why should someone lower the prices when the competition obviously aren't there.

Don't worry prices will go down when GT300 is here, but AMD ain't doing charity work.

AMD has terrible market share. A few years ago Intel slashed their own CPU prices when the core architecture came out to flood the market with their chips and maintain brand loyalty. This worked and core now dominates the market. AMD is in trouble with nVidia's branding and they might want to recruit an entirely new generation of customers right now - they could provide a superior product, at a lower price, make a -ton of sales, converting millions of users and setting themselves up for a coup in the next generation. If they do slim their own profit margins, they have months to sell to users before GT300 is even a threat, and when it does come out nVidia would be forced to take a loss coming to market late with lower yields.

It's a trade-off - give up some profits right now, in effect "buying" loyalty and market share, and then hope to exploit this in the future for profit then.

[Oberon]

AMD has terrible market share. A few years ago Intel slashed their own CPU prices when the core architecture came out to flood the market with their chips and maintain brand loyalty. This worked and core now dominates the market. AMD is in trouble with nVidia's branding and they might want to recruit an entirely new generation of customers right now - they could provide a superior product, at a lower price, make a -ton of sales, converting millions of users and setting themselves up for a coup in the next generation. If they do slim their own profit margins, they have months to sell to users before GT300 is even a threat, and when it does come out nVidia would be forced to take a loss coming to market late with lower yields.

It's a trade-off - give up some profits right now, in effect "buying" loyalty and market share, and then hope to exploit this in the future for profit then.

ATI can't realistically lower the price on these parts enough to put them into the price range where sales volumes will increase dramatically and still make a profit. The kinds of people that know anything about these cards or even care enough to keep up with the technology (people like us) are usually willing to pay a price premium for the latest and greatest piece of kit, but we're definitely in the minority.

ATI will do what it (and NVIDIA) have always done: try to win the high end and then let the reputation trickle down to your lower parts to increase sales regardless of performance.

[Smartidiot89]

AMD has terrible market share. A few years ago Intel slashed their own CPU prices when the core architecture came out to flood the market with their chips and maintain brand loyalty. This worked and core now dominates the market. AMD is in trouble with nVidia's branding and they might want to recruit an entirely new generation of customers right now - they could provide a superior product, at a lower price, make a -ton of sales, converting millions of users and setting themselves up for a coup in the next generation. If they do slim their own profit margins, they have months to sell to users before GT300 is even a threat, and when it does come out nVidia would be forced to take a loss coming to market late with lower yields.

It's a trade-off - give up some profits right now, in effect "buying" loyalty and market share, and then hope to exploit this in the future for profit then.

So what happens then? AMD have lowered their prices BAM GT300 arrives and AMD have to lower prices once again resulting in lower margins. One pricecut is more then enough. Market shares will come slowly, it won't happen over night and AMD can't sacrifice tons of potential income just to gain a few marketshares.

[icecpu]

Is this means further delay for GT300 ???

[turtletrax]

Is this means further delay for GT300 ???

I would have to say YES if true. I doubt that NV would throw out 102 chips out of every wafer LOL

[FischOderAal]

Is this means further delay for GT300 ???

Surely NVIDIA doesn't want to keep it this way. Guess G300 is in for a respin to improve yields.

[Asylum1]

Wow. If this is correct it will be a while before the 300 line comes out.
And yes ATI will sit on there prices.