But they are driving on oil that costs $43 compared to $145 five months ago and we are looking at a future where no one wants to use their product, They will not prop up AMD unless the outright buy them, In fact, as many have already said, they would probably love the opportunity to buy AMD's renaming shares in the foundry company.Originally Posted by Shocker003
No matter how bad the economy is people will still drive.
AMD is a trading vehicle plain and simple. From a valuation the equity is worth 0. I see no way they can ever have a positive FCFE with the amount of leverage they have even in a perfect economic environment.
Even if they have do a positive NI at some point there expenditures on FCinv and WCinv will never bring any returns to shareholders.
It is the same message every quarter and always will be.
AMD break point to profit now is 1.3B.
In Q4 2007 AMD made 1.77B on sales. That means that AMD was caught big time by recession.
If we didnīt had this crysis AMD could have made in Q4 500K in pure profit.
Also in Q4 2007 AMD had: Phenom 1 full of bugs + HD3850/3870 + 690G and any platform in notebooks.
Now AMD have: good Phenom 2 + very good HD4000 serires + very good chip7 7xx and PUMA notebooks.
Still it made less 35% in profit in Q4 2008 compared to Q4 2007. The market is very very bad. In a normal Q4 year with this lineup AMD whould break records on sales for sure....
And now that AMD is getting better it get a hard punch by credit crysis.
Last edited by v_rr; 01-23-2009 at 01:32 PM.
It really is a shame the timing of the economy downturn and AMD's full product lineup finally having good potential.
If it where not for the sour economy I would also think AMD would have shown a 4q profit based on their 3q numbers.
Work Rig: Asus x58 P6T Deluxe, i7 950 24x166 1.275v, BIX2/GTZ/D5
3x2048 GSkill pi Black DDR3 1600, Quadro 600
PCPower & Cooling Silencer 750, CM Stacker 810
Game Rig: Asus x58 P6T, i7 970 24x160 1.2v HT on, TRUE120
3x4096 GSkill DDR3 1600, PNY 660ti
PCPower & Cooling Silencer 750, CM Stacker 830
AMD Rig: Biostar TA790GX A2+, x4 940 16x200, stock hsf
2x2gb Patriot DDR2 800, PowerColor 4850
Corsair VX450
There is always two ways of looking at it, If the economy was still great everyone would be splashing out on nice new i7 systems, The down turn could help the lower priced alternative in a way.
No, the wouldn't. Everyone has always been buying in the midstream segment (that's why it's called midstream). No point in time has the most expensive equipment been the most purchased. Because it's always overpriced. But I agree, this could help AMD slightly (or rather make it slightly less very bad).
i7-920 $289.99 x-58 mobo $185.99, Not the cheapest and not really the most expensive ether, Is it? 6 months ago people would not have thought twice about spending this much on a high end system.
Yes and no, I agree but also disagree with you both. i7 920 is most certainly Mainstream. The problem is the i7 920 + X58 + 3 to 6GB of DDR3 isn't mainstream. Everybody wouldn't be running out and buying them because even though they are clearly the fastest thing out there, they aren't that affordable. Then most importantly, they're NOT high volume and can't affect the market the way Penryn would. Why? AMD doesn't sell enough processors in the broader desktop market where Intel out ships AMD 4.5 to 1 according to the last thing I saw. AMD can only affect certain markets, like servers since total numbers are smaller.
Last edited by Donnie27; 01-23-2009 at 02:44 PM.
Mainstream is more in the range of $200-$400 computers.
Work Rig: Asus x58 P6T Deluxe, i7 950 24x166 1.275v, BIX2/GTZ/D5
3x2048 GSkill pi Black DDR3 1600, Quadro 600
PCPower & Cooling Silencer 750, CM Stacker 810
Game Rig: Asus x58 P6T, i7 970 24x160 1.2v HT on, TRUE120
3x4096 GSkill DDR3 1600, PNY 660ti
PCPower & Cooling Silencer 750, CM Stacker 830
AMD Rig: Biostar TA790GX A2+, x4 940 16x200, stock hsf
2x2gb Patriot DDR2 800, PowerColor 4850
Corsair VX450
If you are talking a full system for $200-$400 would that not be low end?
Oh..... does this sound like they are largely unaffected?
After seeing those numbers that were posted earlier, I'm shocked. That's saying alot too seeing as how I already knew this company was basically bankrupt before.
I'd say a court needs to get ahold of those books right now. My bet is there is much more to this than just bad buisness moves. It may have even crossed the line beyond what is legal. Even if you divide off what they were doing with ATi it doesn't make any sense. Where are the profits at? I'm finiding it very hard to believe they just gave those cards away.
*cough* Intel bribed some OEMs just like under P4 era? *cough*
QFT! I'd something similar many posts ago.
Posted by duploxxx
I am sure JF is relaxed and smiling these days with there intended launch schedule. SNB Xeon servers on the other hand....
Posted by gallag
there yo go bringing intel into a amd thread again lol, if that was someone droping a dig at amd you would be crying like a girl.qft!
LOL! Maybe Intel bribed AMD
Posted by duploxxx
I am sure JF is relaxed and smiling these days with there intended launch schedule. SNB Xeon servers on the other hand....
Posted by gallag
there yo go bringing intel into a amd thread again lol, if that was someone droping a dig at amd you would be crying like a girl.
I dont see how the words profit and amd can be used in the same paragraph. It would be interesting to know how many profitable quarters they had since the millennium. Its amazing that they are still in business(Good for us).
Had the economy not tanked, Q4 would have been very strong and I dont see AMD cutting 9% of employees or cut salaries. So their break even point would have been significantly higher.
I hope they rebound but I worry that they are not getting out of this situation.
Actually, this is the goal, they are not there yet. They didn't even make it to 1.5 billions in Q4. Excluding one time charges and just look at actual cash loss (non-GAAP), AMD lost 419 million in Q4 on gross margins of 43%, on revenue of 1.16 billion, even if revenue was 1.5 billion they would have lost money in Q4.
This is why they cut the payroll and reduced executive salary a few weeks ago, they are trying to hit 1.3 billion break even. Seeking Alpha has a conference call transcript, it is very informative.
They should make that point though, because like Intel, they are working now to reduce costs toward reduced utilization of the factory. When they spin off to the Foundry Co., then the costs are fixed to the unit and the write off for under utilization of the fab will not be on the books. So by Q2/Q3 timeframe, they should be there I would guess (in my novice analysis of the situation).
Jack
One hundred years from now It won't matter
What kind of car I drove What kind of house I lived in
How much money I had in the bank Nor what my cloths looked like.... But The world may be a little better Because, I was important In the life of a child.
-- from "Within My Power" by Forest Witcraft
That is wrong. The breakeven point wasn't $1.3 billion in Q4 08. It is the target for Q2 09 as AMD mentioned in their earnings call. AMD would not have broke even in Q4 with $1.5 billion in revenue.
...At our November Analyst Day we told you that we are driving toward a $1.5 billion quarterly breakeven point for AMD, the product company.
Now, given the environment, we are reducing our breakeven target to approximately $1.3 billion, based on the programs as Dirk mentioned earlier. We are heading down this path this current quarter and our goal is to be there in the second quarter.
EDIT: LOL, JumpingJack beat me to it.
The market meltdown could not have come at a worse time for AMD, if Q4 had been seasonal and the market retained the value on equity, AMD would have shown a true net profit in Q4 08.
Sometime you just need to pity them. They have had it rough one set back after another.
One hundred years from now It won't matter
What kind of car I drove What kind of house I lived in
How much money I had in the bank Nor what my cloths looked like.... But The world may be a little better Because, I was important In the life of a child.
-- from "Within My Power" by Forest Witcraft
yeaaa.. thats true.. we're in talks with amd rite now abt changing their marketing strategy in India.. especially towards government sector and oem markets. since the Indian BPO industry is huge, and currently dominated by Intel, it only makes sense to level that playing field and things will start shaping up.
LOL! Maybe Intel bribed AMD
Donnie, you're cracking me up man!LOL! Maybe Intel bribed AMD
Hehehe! Remember that one suit was for 55 million? Maybe Intel gave the 100 Million to keep quiet?Donnie, you're cracking me up man!
Posted by duploxxx
I am sure JF is relaxed and smiling these days with there intended launch schedule. SNB Xeon servers on the other hand....
Posted by gallag
there yo go bringing intel into a amd thread again lol, if that was someone droping a dig at amd you would be crying like a girl.
No, not on a high end system, of course! But for midstream they would've thought one, two, three, four and possibly five times before purchasing. No one in their right mind would put a 9500GT in that rig but in a midstream rig that's just fine.
Also Donnie27; get your quotes straight next time!
No biggie, will doNo, not on a high end system, of course! But for midstream they would've thought one, two, three, four and possibly five times before purchasing. No one in their right mind would put a 9500GT in that rig but in a midstream rig that's just fine.
Also Donnie27; get your quotes straight next time!
Posted by duploxxx
I am sure JF is relaxed and smiling these days with there intended launch schedule. SNB Xeon servers on the other hand....
Posted by gallag
there yo go bringing intel into a amd thread again lol, if that was someone droping a dig at amd you would be crying like a girl.
Looks like AMD will get some help from Abu Dhabi government, Mubadala Development Co. You can read more here.
Last edited by Eastcoasthandle; 01-25-2009 at 10:45 AM.
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