From the AMD cc ongoing now.
Ontario will ship for revenue in Q4, launch early next year.
Llano has been pushed back to launch After Ontario, due to troubles with 32nm. Yields are not ramping as expected.
Bulldozer taped out, but will only sample to customers some time in H2 2010.
"Remains on track for 2011 launch" -- but it's gonna be very LATE 2011, if it isn't sampling to customers yet, and 32nm is having issues.
Bulldozer is still on track. Your statements on customer sampling and launch are based on your conjecture, not anything that Dirk said.
Well, when issues surface like 32nm has a problem, Llano is delayed, hasn't sampled to customers, it's not like nothing changed and everything is rosy.Quote:
Originally Posted by JF-AMD
Dirk JUST said that Bulldozer would sample in H2 of this year. On the CC. Maybe you should take a listen?Quote:
Originally Posted by JF-AMD
Rick Bergman said last Analyst Day that it would sample to customers in H1.
H2 vs H1. Note the difference?
Dirk also said "32nm SOI yield learning is behind schedule." Why? "GF has alot on their plate." LOL.
Dirk's also disappointed in AMD's server performance in Q2, and said AMD lost server share.
When the seeking alpha transcript is up, I'll link to it, and quote the relevant parts.
Well Llano has sampled, it was BD that Dirk said would only sample in H2 (vs Bergman's H1 goal)Quote:
Originally Posted by savantu
this is unfortunate news for consumers...
....wtff...do you have a link terrance?? come on man jeez.
WTF, it's from a freakin LIVE AUDIO WEBCAST. :shakes:Quote:
Originally Posted by god_43
Seekingalpha will have the written transcript up within several hours after the call ends.
I am not aware that a sampling statement was ever made on bulldozer, that is why I am asking. I did hear Dirk say "Bulldozer remains on track".
wow, just in time for intel's first 22nm products :)Quote:
Originally Posted by terrace215
Well, don't know what to tell you, JF, other than you'll see the H2 sampling statement in the transcript, when it is posted.
Not surprising he felt the need to comment on it as a report was due in some sense on that "goal" from last Analyst Day of BD sampling to customers in H1.
Dirk did say "remains on track for 2011", but it's clearly getting late in 2011, as sampling slips back from H1 to H2 of this year.
If I had to guess, I'd say BD will be lucky to make late Q3 on the desktop, and will be Q4, (if not H1 2012) for server products, due to the extra validation required.
I am listening, I heard the second half statement. That is not what I was questions. I am not aware that we ever made a statement about sampling in the past.
Yep, Rick Bergman, about 40:00 into the audio on his Analyst Day presentation of last year said that one of AMD's goals for 2010 was to sample Ontario, Llano, and Bulldozer, in the FIRST HALF of 2010, to customers.Quote:
Originally Posted by JF-AMD
Take a listen.
But if you did hear the H2 on the CC, then clearly you have to agree that a new server microarchitecture on a new process that only first samples to customers in H2 of year ain't gonna be in any SERVER products until very late next year, at best. There's just a heck of a lot of validation to get done for that segment. Even desktop, 12 months is pushing it for such new (tick & tock) parts.
You guys should just come out and move BD to "H2 2011" at this point, at least, obviously "H1 2011" ain't happening.
As a side note, Intel's adding 32nm capacity to ramp Sandy Bridge faster and "huge customer interest" makes perfect sense now, with this news. Llano & AMD's 32nm SOI pushed back means OEMs are going to need more Sandy Bridge parts to make up the difference in H1 2011.
From Bergman's presentation :
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/5450/83949846.th.jpg
As can be seen,it's stated that the goal is 2010 for product sampling.No closer targets.
And Bulldozer validation process details you know(or to be precise:you don't know) are not nearly enough to let you make such a prognosis.
Remember terrace,just 2 weeks ago you even believed/suggested that BD hasn't even been taped out,let alone tested and sent to costumers.
As can be HEARD on the audio (@ 40:00 or so in), Bergman said FIRST HALF, despite the slide being the larger window. Go listen. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....ventID=2345413Quote:
Originally Posted by informal
Where did I say that BD had not taped out yet, 2 weeks ago? Link, please.
In fact, I noted that JF's "32nm bulldozer pics" post at AMDzone implied that BD finally HAD taped out and that first silicon was moving through the fab in June, despite his later "corrections" and protestations.
IIRC you said we have no clue if it taped out and constantly asked JF-AMD ,here,and on SA forums to give you more information on the tape out and release date,even though the man couldn't do that for obvious reasons. Forgive me for not wasting time plowing thru your posting history looking for your pessimistic posts on Bulldozer(or AMD generally) since there is so many of them I wouldn't know where to start.
I see. In other words, I didn't say any such thing 2 weeks back.Quote:
Originally Posted by informal
As for "pessimism", with today's 32nm SOI / Llano delay announcements, and BD "H2 samples" pushback, looks like my pessimism was reality. Sorry.
Tape out to release is ~1 year.Ontario taped out this year too and is a new design on a new node ,is Fusion, and is launching in Q4.That's less than one year from tape out to launch.
BD taped out sometime in H1.Do the math.
The great semantics debate begins.
Bulldozer taped out in 1H, I was not at liberty to comment because that is an engineering milestone and either Dirk or the head of engineering is allowed to comment officially on those things.
Also, on the call, Dirk said that Bulldozer remains "on track."
He can say that until he KNOWS it will not ship for revenue in some form until after Dec 31, 2011. In fact, "on track" is even more flexible than that, really.Quote:
Originally Posted by JF-AMD
Bobcat is on bulk 40nm, and is intended for the consumer market.Quote:
Originally Posted by informal
BD is much larger, more complex, and intended for the server as well as high-end desktop market, and on 32nm SOI HKMG, a much more challenging process. And it didn't even TAPE OUT until *Q2*. Remember all the fans so sure it had taped out last November? :rolleyes:
Do the math. :rolleyes:
Transcript link:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2147...onference-call
The bad and the ugly:
However, in reaction to Ontario’s market opportunities and a slower than anticipated progress of 32 nm yield curve, we are switching the timing of the Ontario and Llano production ramps.
Llano production shipments are still expected to occur in the first half of next year. In the second quarter this year we also taped out the first 32 nm product based on our new high performance Bulldozer CPU core. We plan to begin sampling our Bulldozer based server and desktop processors in the second half of this year and remain on track for 2011 launches.
You can just imagine what BD yields must (or should I say "would") look like if Llano yields are so bad as to force a product ordering swap and schedule push out.
the thing is he does know. tape out is a significant milestone in development. after that it's fairly easy to know how things will go. it's sort of like the last piece of the puzzle. the only thing left is for glofo to ramp 32nm.Quote:
Originally Posted by terrace215