I don't know guys.. I think its the right thing they are doing but for some reason the pit of my stomach says that its the end of AMD CPU game.
I had the same prediction for 3dfx.
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I don't know guys.. I think its the right thing they are doing but for some reason the pit of my stomach says that its the end of AMD CPU game.
I had the same prediction for 3dfx.
Just a reminder that TSMC has been shipping 55nm for a while now, you need to see the long term better, sure when AMD releases 45nm TSMC will be nehind but then we get 40nm and they are back on top again. I'll say they are quite close in manufacturing process but TSMC is far better as a Fab.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedjo
Another Good read:
http://www.fabtech.org/editor_s_blog/_a/amds_gamble/
http://www.fabtech.org/news/_a/found...hics_business/
This pretty much shows what some people refuse to accept.Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
The investments will be lower than previous, processnode advancement go slower etc. And this is even with tooling and construction.Quote:
Foundry Company’s 2009-2013 capital spending budget is forecast to be $4.8 billion (when using the mid-point of its announced $3.6-$6.0 billion spending plan). The funds will be used to install capacity to produce devices for AMD as well as to enter the IC foundry business. IC Insights believes that this financial commitment is uninspiring at best. It should be noted that AMD’s capital expenditures over this and the previous four years (2004-2008) are expected to total $6.4 billion, and look at what shape the company is in today.
Intel is expected to spend $25.6 billion dollars in capital expenditures from 2004-2008, four times what AMD will spend over the same time period. IC Insights believes that Intel’s capital expenditures over the next five years will total about $30 billion, which would be five times the Foundry Company’s most optimistic plan of investing $6.0 billion over that time!
Given that Foundry Company’s capital spending budget for the next five years is forecast to be less than AMD’s capital spending outlays over the previous five years, it is highly unlikely Foundry Company will help AMD gain additional market share. In fact, AMD will be lucky to sustain flat market share in the MPU segment. Moreover, a significant portion of the Foundry Company’s budget must be allocated to the new foundry business, and this, of course, will take away precious spending needed for MPU production!
The diference is that with ATIC the investments are made and start as soon as 2009. Without ATIC the investments where simply stoped because AMD don´t have money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shintai
And as far as the deal ATIC will invest $3.6-$6.0 billion + pay 1.2B debt + 700K to buy 55% of foundry shares + 300K AMD shares.
In total ATIC will invest 5.8 - 8.2B.
being from Chile I presume that you didn't have chance to visit AMD fabs in some of press tours... unfortunately if you had been able you would have different opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
:rofl:Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedjo
omfg that post nearly made me fall of my chair. :ROTF:
what a stupid comment in the fabtech article
Given that Foundry Company’s capital spending budget for the next five years is forecast to be less than AMD’s capital spending outlays over the previous five years, it is highly unlikely Foundry Company will help AMD gain additional market share. In fact, AMD will be lucky to sustain flat market share in the MPU segment. Moreover, a significant portion of the Foundry Company’s budget must be allocated to the new foundry business, and this, of course, will take away precious spending needed for MPU production!
as if this has anything to do with market share...the quality of a product is more important then the latest technology. K8 has proven this for many years.
and regarding the Intel investments.... if you would calculate the amount of fab space they require to produce there market share it would be normal that they have to invest more (not just for there huge amount of cpu's but also there crappy chipsets all over the place :D on there old fabs), amd fab36 on its own can take the current volume amd require even 1-2 year back when they had a higher marketshare. Not to mention the fact that intel has no co-operation like amd with ibm/samsung.
Only been to the HQ and as far as i know getting into a Fab is pretty much a no go for most of press, so i think is pretty weird that you have been there as press.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedjo
Also been from Europe or US have you been to taiwan and looked at TSMC fabs?
bunch of EE press members was in the Fabs two and half years ago!Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
http://pcekspert.com/articles/416-1.html
no I haven't been in TSMC's fabs. You?
@ Hornet331
what have you find so funny in my previous post?
55nm is the half-node of 65nm.Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
The funny part is your post sounded very arrogant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedjo
Also have you seen anything else but AMDs facility? Just because AMDs facility impressed you doesnt mean its better or worse than the others. Since you havent seen any of those. So basing it all from what you have seen one place is...well lets say it wouldnt matter if Metro.cl have seen it or not.
Its like tasting one cookie and declare it the best in the world. Yet you havent tried any of the other cookies. Or even have a foundation of knowledge to base on if a cookie is actually good or not.
that never crossed my mind. I've just assumed most logical fact (knowing AMD's policy regarding the fab visits, and metro's geographical location)Quote:
Originally Posted by Shintai
completely agree, that was my point in quoting this statement by metro:Quote:
Also have you seen anything else but AMDs facility? Just because AMDs facility impressed you doesnt mean its better or worse than the others.
Well' this is far better answer to metro's post than my "arrogant" one:Quote:
Originally Posted by metro
again excellent quote to reply on metro's post:Quote:
Since you havent seen any of those. So basing it all from what you have seen one place is...well lets say it wouldnt matter if Metro.cl have seen it or not.
Next time I'll take you as my personal spokesperson ;)Quote:
Its like tasting one cookie and declare it the best in the world. Yet you havent tried any of the other cookies. Or even have a foundation of knowledge to base on if a cookie is actually good or not.
C'mon nedjo, you work for AMD. Say it now ;)
That is quite nice but mostly what i said only if AMD invites a bunch of guys (not sure if any other time they did the same) you can't enter it's fabs as press, we have asked for this since we travel a lot and the answer was imposible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nedjo
And my post about TSMC been a better Fab is because as a fab you need to handle many needs from many customers in many diferent lines and sync that with your own needs and roadmaps. AFAIK AMD has never done this ;)
The fact is they never had to do this so we can't tell they couldn't :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
then if it is your first time you wont be the best or better than a fab with 20+ years of experience on this that is the point.Quote:
Originally Posted by AbelJemka
Why not?
Not like AMD is a rookie. ? More than 30 years making processor give you enough competence to deal with complex process.
Not for arguing Metro i think you can't be affirmative about your statement
What you say is exactly the point 20 years making CPUs doesnt make you the best making everything in semiconductor. You believe they will be the best i think they will need a few years to be in the game and see how good they are but i dont expect them to be the best any time soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by AbelJemka
Not arguing either here just diferent POV. I'll just add that most websites that are focused on semiconductor production think closer to my POV.
OK......I work for AMD............There you a Happy Camper?Quote:
Originally Posted by STaRGaZeR
I never say that but i believe with their competence and experience they will be able to climb to the top so i don't understand why everyone underestimate them so much :shrug:Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
Uh?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brother Esau
Even AMD and ATIC aren't expecting themselves to be competitive for at least another 2 years. They plan to be competitive in the established semiconductor market by about 2010-2011, which seems realistic to me at least.Quote:
Originally Posted by metro.cl
It's true though that a bit of experience can help, although that does not have to make you better than the anyone else by default.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...0081007?rpc=44
Seems they forgive a little point?
aargh, what a load of BS in this thread. sad
lets just hope things turn out well, and some day AMD can scream out to the intel guys to BRING IT ON
You don't really understand how the foundry business works, do you ? You think its enough to build the latest and greatest FAB and you're king of the hill ?Quote:
Originally Posted by AbelJemka
Here's the revenue breakdown for TSMC :
>.5 micron around 4%
0,25/0.35 micron around 10%
0.15/0.18 micron around 23%
o.11/0.13 micron around 17%
0.09 micron around 28%
0.065 micron around 17%
Ooopsie.. 80+% is legacy ; looks like there isn't a lot of demand for a new processes like 45/32 nm.
No pool of legacy customers to move forward; need to build the entire customer design interface ; design tools and libraries.
That is anything but easy.