Afaik the core size was around RV730/HD4670, so the manufacturing cost should be somewhere near to RV730. Of course the 40 nm manufacturing process is more expensive as in per wafer + lower yields due to immature process. But that should be fixed in few months. Also I doubt that AMD necessarily needs to cut the price anyway, the biggest competitor for that card is AMD itself with HD4830/HD4850. ;)
Oh, completely forgot the GDDR5. Then I completely agree that the sub $100 is totally laughable. Silly me. :shrug:
Edit:
http://vr-zone.com/articles/ati-rv74....html?doc=6334
I was sure I did not get the < $100 from my hat! Still quite doubtfull due to yields, more expensive process per wafer and GDDR5. Though, GDDR5 prices shouldn't be that high nowadays, and it makes the PCB simplier. So, the final bet: $110-$130 on launch, eventually falls sub $89. :)