Jeffersonian
05-14-2009, 03:25 PM
Disclaimer:
I don't intend for any of my threads to be "post-n-run" to waste time. I'm just always busy and my schedule should be ordered better, I guess.
Considering the aforementioned, I'll try to come back as soon as possible, but I never know what's going to come up.
[/disclaimer]
Prologue:
I wanted to discuss whether my current prediction for Nintendo's 6th generation console are likely. They are as follows, rationally explained.
Chapter 1: What I take for granted:
1-1. It will be a modern-day SuperNES, largely about very powerful console tech affecting fun, and the controller design will be excellent, but more subtle; more like a design of the best of what's already been done.
They'll enjoy as much 3rd party support as the Super NES got; MS is kind of hurting their future generation by a lot of their own enforcement of centralizations. I believe if Nintendo can keep royalty fees lower or the same as Microsoft, provide better hardware for games with better tech quality to impress more people, and some quality development tools, then I honestly think that MS will be the one relying on in-house software next time.
1-2. I believe Sony and Nintendo will battle each other for 3rd party support. I think Nintendo will start out with the most, then Sony will be the Sega of the 16 bit era--they'll gain, but Sony has a 49% of chance, in my mind, of ultimately win this coming generation. Nintendo 51% chance. That's probably how close the results will be. Certainly the closest overall 1 on 1 competition since Sega and Nintendo battled each other a very long time ago. I also think that there will be a new generation of Neo-Geos, Jaguars, and 3DOs, as well as Sony losing largely because of an unsuccessful add-on or even two--I think it'll be that the 6th Gen Nintendo will appear tech superior, at first impression, so Sony may over-estimate their successes at increasing tech-quality through expensive add-ons. The economy will be much worse than it was in late 2008 for the next decade, so that's my rationale for expecting a lot of 90s style failures in the next decade.
Chapter 2:
What I majoritarily predict (although I don't take the following for granted):
2-1. Nintendo quitting ATI or IBM, or both.
They may have to go with someone other than ATi, if they want something of high-end quality that's innovative like the Super NES (i.e., high-tech and innovative hardware; the wii is only the latter).
2-2. Nintendo's staff says things giving the implication that the Wii didn't deserve all of the credit it got. Even possible explicitly saying that the Wii was not near the best they could do to provide fun for all; and that it was far more to make themself money, than for the Wii to provide the consumer with fun.
2-3.
a. Won't comparable in terms of money raked in by the Wii, but rather Nintendo 6 will be of comparable to the Super NES in terms of economic success for Nintendo.
b. I assume they'll go with more than one SKU (like Sony and MS did), they'll range from $[349, $499] or maybe even [$399-599].
Ratinale behind the afforementioned is the Japan is becoming very protectionist (which I personally can't see much reason nor decent will to blame them for), and the economy will play a role in it being Nintendo's most expensive console ever; this year's value of U.S.-release products by Japanese companies, are great evidence. Since early 07, I've expected the worst for life quality. Now I've settled on another 10 years of high prices and low quality.
c. It will live a shorter life like the 2nd, 3, and 4th Gen Nintendo consoles did. I believe the wii won't die for a while; in fact, I think it'll have licensed games for 9 years like the NES did, in the US.
Epilogue:
I've not asked a larger group of people this since the wii was more in it's prime than it is now--in fact it's been about 6 months.
I know that these views and expectations on the 6th-gen Nintendo are >=90% radical in every way possible, but it's what I believe. I rationalized them the best I could, and hopefully they'll come across as articulated well.
I'm looking forward to all replies and I'll appreciate them.:)
I don't intend for any of my threads to be "post-n-run" to waste time. I'm just always busy and my schedule should be ordered better, I guess.
Considering the aforementioned, I'll try to come back as soon as possible, but I never know what's going to come up.
[/disclaimer]
Prologue:
I wanted to discuss whether my current prediction for Nintendo's 6th generation console are likely. They are as follows, rationally explained.
Chapter 1: What I take for granted:
1-1. It will be a modern-day SuperNES, largely about very powerful console tech affecting fun, and the controller design will be excellent, but more subtle; more like a design of the best of what's already been done.
They'll enjoy as much 3rd party support as the Super NES got; MS is kind of hurting their future generation by a lot of their own enforcement of centralizations. I believe if Nintendo can keep royalty fees lower or the same as Microsoft, provide better hardware for games with better tech quality to impress more people, and some quality development tools, then I honestly think that MS will be the one relying on in-house software next time.
1-2. I believe Sony and Nintendo will battle each other for 3rd party support. I think Nintendo will start out with the most, then Sony will be the Sega of the 16 bit era--they'll gain, but Sony has a 49% of chance, in my mind, of ultimately win this coming generation. Nintendo 51% chance. That's probably how close the results will be. Certainly the closest overall 1 on 1 competition since Sega and Nintendo battled each other a very long time ago. I also think that there will be a new generation of Neo-Geos, Jaguars, and 3DOs, as well as Sony losing largely because of an unsuccessful add-on or even two--I think it'll be that the 6th Gen Nintendo will appear tech superior, at first impression, so Sony may over-estimate their successes at increasing tech-quality through expensive add-ons. The economy will be much worse than it was in late 2008 for the next decade, so that's my rationale for expecting a lot of 90s style failures in the next decade.
Chapter 2:
What I majoritarily predict (although I don't take the following for granted):
2-1. Nintendo quitting ATI or IBM, or both.
They may have to go with someone other than ATi, if they want something of high-end quality that's innovative like the Super NES (i.e., high-tech and innovative hardware; the wii is only the latter).
2-2. Nintendo's staff says things giving the implication that the Wii didn't deserve all of the credit it got. Even possible explicitly saying that the Wii was not near the best they could do to provide fun for all; and that it was far more to make themself money, than for the Wii to provide the consumer with fun.
2-3.
a. Won't comparable in terms of money raked in by the Wii, but rather Nintendo 6 will be of comparable to the Super NES in terms of economic success for Nintendo.
b. I assume they'll go with more than one SKU (like Sony and MS did), they'll range from $[349, $499] or maybe even [$399-599].
Ratinale behind the afforementioned is the Japan is becoming very protectionist (which I personally can't see much reason nor decent will to blame them for), and the economy will play a role in it being Nintendo's most expensive console ever; this year's value of U.S.-release products by Japanese companies, are great evidence. Since early 07, I've expected the worst for life quality. Now I've settled on another 10 years of high prices and low quality.
c. It will live a shorter life like the 2nd, 3, and 4th Gen Nintendo consoles did. I believe the wii won't die for a while; in fact, I think it'll have licensed games for 9 years like the NES did, in the US.
Epilogue:
I've not asked a larger group of people this since the wii was more in it's prime than it is now--in fact it's been about 6 months.
I know that these views and expectations on the 6th-gen Nintendo are >=90% radical in every way possible, but it's what I believe. I rationalized them the best I could, and hopefully they'll come across as articulated well.
I'm looking forward to all replies and I'll appreciate them.:)