TSMC's Executive Sees Chip Industry Recovery in Three Years

[onethreehill]

TAIPEI -- The global semiconductor industry has yet to hit bottom and likely won't recover fully from the current downturn for another three years, according to one of the industry's senior figures, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Chairman Morris Chang.

In an interview Friday, Mr. Chang said the industry, which has been hard hit by the global economic slowdown, was "pretty close" to the bottom. But he said that a return to the sales volumes that the industry had before the current slump would be extremely slow. "You get a precipitous drop and a very slow rise," he said.

"I think it will be 2012 before the total revenue of the semiconductor industry gets back to the '08 level," said Mr. Chang, who founded Taiwan Semiconductor in 1987.

Taiwan Semiconductor, or TSMC, itself has been hit hard by the downturn. Its revenue for the last three months of 2008 fell 31.2% from the same period a year earlier, and the company has announced that the first three months of this year could see revenue drop by as much as 63% from the year before. Earlier this month, TSMC released said its sales in January fell 58.9% from the same month in 2008......
WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123512866053632181.html)

[Artmic]

WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123512866053632181.html)

That guy is delusional, 3 years? In 3 years we will be knee deep in Depression still.

The central Bankers destroyed our country.

[Shintai]

Its alot more realistic than those thinking the next quarter will fix everything :p:

Specially GM/Chrysler is pretty delusional.

2012 for 2008 levels. Maybe abit too high, but its going the right way by then.

[perkam]

FIXED. :p:


"I think it will be 2012 before the total revenue of the semiconductor industry gets back to the '08 level," said Mr. Chang, "by which time our 40nm process should be complete, but there are no guarantees". Perkam

[Bo_Fox]

And Obama expects to cut the national debt in half by 2012, the end of his term. Go figure!

At least the lower gas prices and real estate value are good for us. I'm just glad to see the property values go back down to reasonable levels, from the artificially inflated levels that started in the 90's with the interest-free boom.

Another good thing is that the corporate giants are now more humbled and forced to try harder to appeal to us customers who are now more thrifty. An average guy making 80K a year will think twice about buying a printer from HP for $300 with expensive ink, next to a similar one from Epson for $150. We'll also be wiser with making impule-buys on a fake 120Hz HDTV that is ridiculously overpriced just because of that B.S. 120Hz feature. It's time that we're ALL brought to our senses. And it might be a good time for new businesses to pop up against the giants that are now weakened???

[ToTTenTranz]

Another good thing is that the corporate giants are now more humbled and forced to try harder to appeal to us customers who are now more thrifty. An average guy making 80K a year will think twice about buying a printer from HP for $300 with expensive ink, next to a similar one from Epson for $150. We'll also be wiser with making impule-buys on a fake 120Hz HDTV that is ridiculously overpriced just because of that B.S. 120Hz feature. It's time that we're ALL brought to our senses. And it might be a good time for new businesses to pop up against the giants that are now weakened???


Ssshhh!
Don't say that in a forum where the "cool guys" are the ones who spend obscene ammounts of money with hardware they don't need.. you'l get yourself flamed to death!

[BrownTown]

having a 4 year span of no growth would be representative of a FAR worse economic downturn then we are currently in. I expect all the Intel stock I bought at $12.00 would be rising alot quicker than 3 years from now.

[Bo_Fox]

having a 4 year span of no growth would be representative of a FAR worse economic downturn then we are currently in. I expect all the Intel stock I bought at $12.00 would be rising alot quicker than 3 years from now.

LOL.. what you mean by that? You mean that you expect your stock to rise quicker in the meantime???

@ ToTTenTranz, LOL!

[Xel'Naga]

My Microelectronics professor worked for Qimonda until quite recently. He had far more grim predictions.