Good time to buy Intel Stock?

[doc6886]

Hey, just thought we could get a stock conversation going here...

It appears that Intel will be the CPU of choice for the first time in years and some think it will hold the crown for a few years to come. Its current price is $18.51 and its 52week range is $16.75 - $28.84. I've heard talk of some people waiting until AMD sinks down really low and then investing in it @ very low prices, expecting AMDs response to Conroe down the road to regain the crown. It's a complicated situation right now and I just wanted to see what other people's opinions are.

[Mikesnav]

I don't know, could be lower soon enough.
Once they post their weak revenues due to the massive price drops, that is.

[cronic]

I thought the same thing a month ago, but then started thinking about the gains that amd had made in the server market and the massive price cuts on p4 will effect the bottom line, so I am not so sure that Intel is a go right now as It will probably go a little lower and then gain in a few months. But then again, its gambleing either way. Long term it is a good investment.

[davefr]

Q2 will be their weakest quarter and the market has already reflected that in their $18 stock price. (it's the weakest quarter based on seasonality and they had to get aggresive to clear out excess channel inventory).

Otellini is aggressively cleaning house and driving for internal actions that will increase efficiency and reduce cost. He's a much better CEO then Barrett was. Look for targeted layoffs, re-orgs, and the shedding of unprofitable business units. Since most stock options are underwater, management has a very strong incentive to put in place meaningful change.

All the new Core 2 Duo products are being well rec'd and they run on existing proven 65nm technology. I don't think Intel's going to let itself get as embarressed in the marketplace as it's has been the last couple years.

However Intel has not been able to diversify enough. They are still tied to the basic PC industry. Also AMD is a much tougher competitor under Ruiz.

Yea, Intel is probably a good buy. I'd guess mid to high 20's by year end assuming the overall worldwide economy stays in decent shape.

[Silver Bullet]

I'm going to go with this would be a bad time to buy intel stock, with revenue warnings coming (along with major price drops and the cost of launching a new chip).. i would suspect around back to school time (Q3 or early Q4) might be better .. hard to say .. i'm no stock expert ;)

[Mocha272]

I agree Intel is a good long term investment, but it's not without risk. Conroe will probably give Intel the lead soon. AMD may reclaim the lead in 6 to 9 months and AMD seems to be able to scale better (lower power consumption) with quad cores for server market. On top of all that, better technology does not gurarntee better stock performance. I do not expect Intel to go above $21 in 2006. After Windows Vista releases next year, the replacement cycle will start for many people. I would expect both to perform better at that time.

<Partial disclosure> I was 100% in AMD for the last 10 months. I am 70/30 AMD/INTC. I will be 50/50 by next week and 30/70 AMD/INTC by year end.

[doc6886]

Oh... had tough ride down the hill with AMD? That's a shame, I would've been with you on that but I didn't have any money 10 months ago. I was 100% Sirius (satellite radio) :D

[Mocha272]

I bought AMD on 6/27/05 at $16.73. I sold 30% of my AMD holding on 5/18/06 at $35.48 and used the proceed to buy INTC at $18.72 on the same day. The ride was pretty exciting but it's still profitable. I didn't do so well with XMSR (satellite radio), lost 17% on that one.

[Theta]

Almost certainly a good time to short AMD, I should think. It's been falling, though... Maybe too late. Ah well.

[doc6886]

Damn Mocha, that's a sweet buy in for AMD. What do you think a good buy in price for AMD is? I'm hopin it goes down to around 17 within the next couple of months. Think it's headed that far south?

If you've got any spare cash, I'd get in on Sirius Satellite Radio... it's trading at a mere $4.60 right now, which is insane (I think). Almost all the spare cash I get I buy more of it, besides the lot that I've been saving to buy INTC or AMD with...

[Johnny Sack]

You need to read Warren Buffet's books and research publications. He doesn't like that day trading buy,sell,buy,sell fast crap. He says people make mistakes all the time because they get scared their first time the stock goes down below what they paid, and then they sell. Intel has the potential to make you a lot of money in the long run.If you're going to buy Intel stock you need to buy several hundred shares at a time just to make some decent money. Intel just sold off something in Israel today. He made something like 100 million in a day on that Colgate merger. I think he owns like 40% of Gillette's stock.

Goodluck

[doc6886]

Johnny, I've learned some good lessons from people and the most important one is to not sell stock when it's below what you paid for :) You just keep waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting until it's above what you paid.

But now I'm seriously considering short-selling AMD. I'm a bit scared about this because I've read about how you can lose "infinite" amounts of money. But can't you just have a Limit on it? Say I sell 1 share of AMD right now at $23. I can tell my broker that I went to buy it back if it ever reaches $25. Therefore, I'd only EVER lose a maximum of $2. Is this possible? If so, I'm definitely going to short AMD. Hoping it'll go down into the teens if I do short it :D

[Theta]

Careful with shorting, talk to your broker. Especially if you're already looking at possible losses off the bat.

Usually, the blocks are much larger in volume than simple stock trading. Major money to be made or lost.

[Johnny Sack]

Johnny, I've learned some good lessons from people and the most important one is to not sell stock when it's below what you paid for :) You just keep waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting until it's above what you paid.


Of course that's the correct way to a degree, but like Buffet said a lot of investors cut thier losses and sell when their stock is just a few bucks below what they paid in fear of losing more money.

[doc6886]

Hopefully it's a way to a lot of money too... because my new Conroe rig is going to cost a shît load!

Any opinions on my idea to short sell AMD? Have you had any experiences with short selling?

[RAMMAN]

take this with a grain of salt, but sell half your amd stocks and use that to invest in intel shortly before core 2 duo,s release.

[Tilmitt]

Just wondering, do you guys use online brokers to buy stock or what, and if so what sites would you recommend?

[doc6886]

I use Ameritrade, which has now become TD Ameritrade (Ameritrade merged with TD Waterhouse). It's really cheap and easy to use. $10 per trade, which is awesome... http://www.tdameritrade.com

[Tilmitt]

That site looks brilliant, unfortunately even though they allow international accounts for some reason Ireland is not on their list, which is where I live. :(